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Siriwardana, Ananda
- PublicationThe Environmental and Employment Effect of Australian Carbon Tax(International Association of Computer Science and Information Technology (IACSIT), 2015)
; ; The paper employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with an environmentally-extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) to simulate the effects of a carbon tax of $23 per tonne of carbon dioxide on different economic agents, with and without a compensation policy. According to the simulation results, the carbon tax can cut emissions effectively, but will cause a mild economic contraction. The proposed compensation plan has little impact on emission cuts while significantly mitigating the negative effect of a carbon tax on the economy. The effect on various employment occupations is mildly negative, ranging from -0.6% to -1.7%, with production and transport workers worst affected. - PublicationThe Impact of The Global Financial Crisis on The Asia-Pacific Region(Taiwan Institute of Business Administration, Taiwan Sheng Gongshang Guanli Xuehui, 2012)
; ; The global financial crisis (GFC) began three years ago, but the world economy is still in its shadow. The sluggishness of the economic recovery in the US and the recurrence of the European debt crises destroys the confidence of investors as well as consumers. "Double dip" appears as a threat from time to time. Under these circumstances, it is imperative to understand fully the impact of the GFC and the effectiveness of various policy responses to it. Using the GTAP model, the GTAP database 7.0 and macroeconomic data, this paper will gauge the impact of the GFC on the Asia-Pacific region. The paper will also simulate and assess the effect of the policy responses in Asia-Pacific countries, such as massive government investment in infrastructure and capital-intensive goods, and tax cuts and subsidies to help business and save jobs. By analyzing the simulation results, this paper will shed light on the contributing factors of the GFC and the efficient ways to cope with a large negative economic shock like the GFC. - PublicationA Multi-Sectoral, Multi-Household, General Equilibrium Model to Assess the Impact of a Carbon Price on the Australian Economy(Common Ground Publishing, 2013)
; ; This paper analyses the macro-economic, sectoral and household effects of an AU$23per tonne carbon price to achieve carbon dioxide (CO2-e) emissions reduction targets in the Australian economy by employing a static computable general equilibrium (titled as A3E-G) model of the Australian Economy. The A3E-G model developed for this study is capable of handling endogenous substitution among energy inputs and alternative allocation of resources among energy and capital. The A3E-G model incorporates an explicit tax system that evaluates carbon price impact on the economy under both short-run and long-run closures. The model has been calibrated using an environmentally-extended social accounting matrix (ESAM) which is disaggregated to show a detailed picture of carbon emissions by sectors, energy sources, electricity generating sectors, household income groups and various occupations. - PublicationThe Determinants of Australian Household Debt: A Macro-level Study(2011)
; ; Household debt in Australia has grown at an astonishing rate since the 1990s. This paper employs a cointegrated Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to explore the determinants of Australian household debt. The results show that GDP is the most important determinant, followed by the housing prices and the number of new dwellings. Meanwhile, interest rates, unemployment rate and inflation are found to have a negative effect on Australian household debt; of these, interest rates are the most significant. Based on these results, it is judicious to rein in household debt in the economic booms through reforms to the financial system, standardizing lending market, monitoring and intervening in assets market, and using the monetary policy timely, comprehensively, and carefully. - PublicationThe Evolution of Australian Exchange Rate Strategies and Australia's Capacity to Maintain a Strong Floating-currency RegimeAs an industrial country, Australian authorities implemented various exchange rate policies at different stages by combining the world's trend and its particular domestic economic environment. There are three stages of exchange rate regimes that Australia has been experiencing so far. The first stage can be called the absolutely-fixed regime from December 1931 to November 1976, including three sub-regimes: Australian dollar pegging to the British Pound, pegging to the U.S. dollar and pegging to the fixed effective exchange rate (TWI); the second stage is the Crawling Peg regime from November 1976 to December 1983; the third stage is the pure-floating regime since December 1983. At each regime, the authorities took different approaches to exchange rate to reach the different economic objectives. This paper attempts to present the evolution of Australia's exchange rate system from a fixed to a floating stage and then up to present, including a description of some relevant institutional developments, such as the removal of capital controls, the development of the Australia's foreign exchange market. The analysis sheds light on Australia's capacity to absorb global financial crises by maintaining a strong floating-currency regime.
- PublicationThe determinants of Australian household debt: A macro level studyThis paper employs a cointegrated Vector Autoregression (CVAR) model to explore the determinants of Australian household debt. The results show that housing prices, GDP and the population in the economy have a positive effect on household borrowing. Meanwhile, interest rates, the unemployment rate, the number of new dwellings and inflation are found to have a negative effect on Australian household debt. Of these, interest rates are the most significant. Based on these results, it is judicious to rein in household debt during economic booms through monitoring and intervening in the assets market and using monetary policy in a timely, comprehensive, and careful manner.
- PublicationThe Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output, Unemployment and Housing Prices in Australia(2019-02-11)
; ; The effects of fiscal policy on economic issues are complex. Recent literature has raised concerns about the significant impact of fiscal instruments on GDP, consumption, investment, unemployment and housing due to the financial crisis. This thesis addresses the question how government expenditure and/or tax revenue impacts on GDP, unemployment and housing in the case of Australia. We use three different methods to exam the effects of fiscal policy on the Australian economy.
The structural vector autoregressive model used for the empirical analysis is an important improvement to the reduced-form regression strategies usually employed in the literature. The first method applied was short-run identification method using EVIEWS, which produced no significant impact and results that conflict with current economic theory. The analyses suggest that traditional approaches measuring the effects of fiscal policy on GDP and unemployment rate must be rethought. Findings from this research illustrate the dangers of incorrectly invoking an economic assumption of linking the fiscal instruments to GDP and unemployment rate.
The second method was sign restrictions identification method using RATs program, based on Uhlig's criteria using SVAR. The results from the second method suggest that whenever the government wants to increase GDP or reduce the unemployment rate, they can increase spending or reduce tax revenue. This result appears to be consistent with those of major contributors to the literature (see for example Blanchard and Perotti, 2002; Mountford & Uhlig, 2009). Although the results come from two different identifications methods, pure-sign-restriction and penalty-function, these findings all followed the same directions. Findings on the unemployment rate response to fiscal shocks, confirmed those of studies such as Monacelli et al. (2010) and Holden & Sparrman (2014), but differed with Bruckner & Pappa (2010).
The third method uses sign restrictions identification, in conjunction with a Bayesian method executed in MATLAB, to control the signs of the responses from other variables to fiscal shocks. This third can control the results to one specific model. We imposed restrictions to examine the relationships between fiscal policy shocks and the housing price index. Our results show that government spending has positive effects on the housing price index, but that tax revenue shocks do not. This result holds validity for fiscal and housing market policymakers, in the light of housing bubbles and economic fluctuations.