Election-Related Violence in the Philippines: Trends, Targets, and Perpetrators
Election-related violence (ERV) is a recurring concern in the Philippines — one that strikes deep into the hearts of the country's democratic institutions. As such, a thorough analysis on the nature of ERVs in the country is necessary for the development of policies that combat such violence. While there has been a number of ERV studies post-Marcos, this is the first that looks at electoral violence data at both the individual and aggregate levels. This study examines incidences of Election-Related Violence (ERV) in the Philippines from 2013 to 2019 using a novel dataset, the ASOG ERV Database, constructed from online media reports. The findings highlight key characteristics of ERV in the Philippines from 2013 to 2019.
Accuracy or confidence? Analyzing the impact of online misinformation on Filipino youth voting likelihood
How does online misinformation affect citizen’s likelihood to vote? The risk of fake news on social media does not only lie in the false narratives spread by manipulated content but also in the misplaced confidence cultivated by the way fake news is consumed. Both should be considered when evaluating the impact of fake news on political behavior. We examine a non-probability sample comprising 23,996 college students across the Philippines a year before the 2022 national elections to see the individual effects of misinformation susceptibility and confidence on voting. Contrary to previous empirical work, ordered logistic regression analyses reveal that both confidence and information accuracy are crucial predictors in voting likelihood. We also find empirical evidence for dissatisfaction with the President and the third person effect being significant factors in one’s choice to vote.
The link between fake news susceptibility and political polarization of the youth in the Philippines
This study explores the relationship between political polarization, measured as pro-administration and opposition support, and vulnerability to online misinformation through a survey distributed through snowball sampling among students in colleges and universities across the Philippines. Using quasibinomial models, a two-model approach was conducted to disentangle the accuracy goals and partisan goals of the students. We find that polarized supporters of President Duterte are more likely to inaccurately identify fake and real news, compared to polarized supporters of the opposition. This is remarkably similar to trends in the United States where Republicans are more vulnerable to misinformation. Other results also highlight possible trends, such as the link between increased self-reported frequency of seeing fake news and decreased likelihood of correctly identifying fake news, and the link between increased trust in news in social media and decreased odds of correctly identifying both real and fake news.
Introducing the Philippine Electoral Violence (PEV) data set: Uncovering trends, targets, and perpetrators of election-related violence during the 2013–2019 elections
Election-related violence (ERV) is a recurring concern in the Philippines — considered to be one of the most violent countries in Asia. National and midterm elections which happen every 3 years are the most violent. As such, a thorough analysis on the nature of ERVs in the country is necessary to address the causes facilitating electoral violence. While there have been several ERV studies in the Philippines after the post-1986 democratization period, this article is the first that looks at electoral violence data at both the individual and aggregate levels. This study examines incidences of ERV in the Philippines from 2013 to 2019 by creating a novel incident-level data set, the Philippine Electoral Violence data set, constructed from online media reports. A total of 394 incidents were found over the three election periods covered in the data set, which includes at least one incident in 65 out of the 81 provinces in the country.