The development of anthelmintic resistance by helminths can be slowed by maintaining refugia on pasture or in untreated hosts. Targeted selective treatments (TST) may achieve this through the treatment only of individuals that would benefit most from anthelmintic, according to certain criteria. However TST consequences on cattle are uncertain, mainly due to difficulties of comparison between alternative strategies. We developed a mathematical model to compare: 1) the most 'beneficial' indicator for treatment selection and 2) the method of selection of calves exposed to Ostertagia ostertagi, i.e. treating a fixed percentage of the population with the lowest (or highest) indicator values versus treating individuals who exceed (or are below) a given indicator threshold. The indicators evaluated were average daily gain (ADG), faecal egg counts (FEC), plasma pepsinogen, combined FEC and plasma pepsinogen, versus random selection of individuals. Treatment success was assessed in terms of benefit per R (BPR), the ratio of average benefit in weight gain to change in frequency of resistance alleles R (relative to an untreated population). The optimal indicator in terms of BPR for fixed percentages of calves treated was plasma pepsinogen and the worst ADG; in the latter case treatment was applied to some individuals who were not in need of treatment. The reverse was found when calves were treated according to threshold criteria, with ADG being the best target indicator for treatment. This was also the most beneficial strategy overall, with a significantly higher BPR value than any other strategy, but its degree of success depended on the chosen threshold of the indicator. The study shows strong support for TST, with all strategies showing improvements on calves treated selectively, compared with whole-herd treatment at 3, 8, 13 weeks post-turnout. The developed model appeared capable of assessing the consequences of other TST strategies on calf populations.

Predicting the effectiveness of parasite control strategies requires accounting for the responses of individual hosts and the epidemiology of parasite supra- and infra-populations. The first objective was to develop a stochastic model that predicted the parasitological interactions within a group of first season grazing calves challenged by 'Ostertagia ostertagi', by considering phenotypic variation amongst the calves and variation in parasite infra-population. Model behaviour was assessed using variations in parasite supra-population and calf stocking rate. The model showed the initial pasture infection level to have little impact on parasitological output traits, such as worm burdens and FEC, or overall performance of calves, whereas increasing stocking rate had a disproportionately large effect on both parasitological and performance traits. Model predictions were compared with published data taken from experiments on common control strategies, such as reducing stocking rates, the 'dose and move' strategy and strategic treatment with anthelmintic at specific times. Model predictions showed in most cases reasonable agreement with observations, supporting model robustness. The stochastic model developed is flexible, with the potential to predict the consequences of other nematode control strategies, such as targeted selective treatments on groups of grazing calves.

This study evaluates the feasibility of developing (or accessing) a sheep nematode epidemiology model for Australian conditions. Following consultation with animal health experts, such a model would need to predict the impact of integrated parasite control strategies (nutrition, grazing management, anthelmintic treatment strategies and selective breeding for resistance) upon productive traits, parasitological traits and the emergence of anthelmintic resistance. Seven existing nematode epidemiology models were reviewed to evaluate their suitability for Australian conditions in their current form, or after customisation. Whilst individually these models were found to be incapable of evaluating integrated parasite control strategies, a composite of these models could achieve this aim. The best functions from the models reviewed were identified and the initial outline of a composite model is consequently proposed. Access to such a model for industry advice, educational or research purposes can be facilitated via its inclusion in the WormBoss website following development of a user friendly interface. Further, providing open-access to the model source code will inform researchers of underlying assumptions, allow for thorough review, remove reliance upon an individual, and facilitate further development. Finally, the potential pathway and cost of developing a validated sheep nematode epidemiology model and advice tool is considered.

Targeted selective treatment (TST) requires the ability to identify the animals for which anthelmintic treatment will result in the greatest benefit to the entire flock. Various phenotypic traits have previously been suggested as determinant criteria for TST; however, the weight gain benefit and impact on anthelmintic efficacy for each determinant criterion is expected to be dependent upon the level of nematode challenge and the timing of anthelmintic treatment. A mathematical model was used to simulate a population of 10,000 parasitologically naïve Scottish Blackface lambs (with heritable variation in host-parasite interactions) grazing on medium-quality pasture (grazing density = 30 lambs/ha, crude protein = 140 g/kg DM, metabolisable energy = 10 MJ/kg DM) with an initial larval contamination of 1000, 3000 or 5000 Teladorsagia circumcincta L₃/kg DM. Anthelmintic drenches were administered to 0, 50 or 100% of the population on a single occasion. The day of anthelmintic treatment was independently modelled for every day within the 121 day simulation. Where TST scenarios were simulated (50% treated), lambs were either chosen by random selection or according to highest faecal egg count (FEC, eggs/g DM faeces), lowest live weight (LW, kg) or lowest growth rate (kg/day). Average lamb empty body weight (kg) and the resistance (R) allele frequency amongst the parasite population on pasture were recorded at slaughter (day 121) for each scenario. Average weight gain benefit and increase in R allele frequency for each determinant criterion, level of initial larval contamination and day of anthelmintic treatment were calculated by comparison to a non-treated population. Determinant criteria were evaluated according to average weight gain benefit divided by increase in R allele frequency to determine the benefit per R. Whilst positive phenotypic correlations were predicted between worm burden and FEC; using LW as the determinant criterion provided the greatest benefit per R for all levels of initial larval contamination and day of anthelmintic treatment. Hence, LW was identified as the best determinant criterion for use in a TST regime. This study supports the use of TST strategies as benefit per R predictions for all determinant criteria were greater than those predicted for the 100% treatment group, representing an increased longterm productive benefit resulting from the maintenance of anthelmintic efficacy. Whilst not included in this study, the model could be extended to consider other parasite species and host breed parameters, variation in climatic influences on larval availability and grass growth, repeated anthelmintic treatments and variable proportional flock treatments.