This study set out to model potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using an emission scenario, in conjunction with two different global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS), and MIROC-H (MR), and to refine results based on suitability under four nonclimatic parameters. Areas containing suitable physicochemical soil properties and suitable soil taxonomy, together with land slopes of less than 10° and suitable land uses for date palm ('Phoenix dactylifera') were selected as appropriate refining tools to ensure the CLIMEX results were accurate and robust. Results showed that large regions of Iran are projected as likely to become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation based on the projected scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The study also showed CLIMEX outputs merit refinement by nonclimatic parameters and that the incremental introduction of each additional parameter decreased the disagreement between GCMs. Furthermore, the study indicated that the least amount of disagreement in terms of areas conducive to date palm cultivation resulted from CS and MR GCMs when the locations of suitable physicochemical soil properties and soil taxonomy were used as refinement tools.

This research examines the impacts of climate change on the potential future distribution of 'Lantana camara' L., a highly invasive species, in continental Australia. A process-based niche model of lantana is developed, using CLIMEX software, to estimate its potential distribution. The likely impact of climate change is explored using climate data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs), Echam Mark 3 (ECHAM3) and Hadley Mark 2 (HadCM2). The models are run with high as well as low emission scenarios projected 20 years (2030s) and 50 years (2070s) into the future. Both GCMs show a southward shift in distribution based on the climate data. Suitable areas for 'L. camara' are identified well into the 2070s. Some of these areas coincide with bioregions containing endangered ecological communities which need to be prioritized for management actions. HadCM2 shows a more restricted lantana distribution with most of the continent becoming unsuitable by the 2070s except for some areas of suitability along the eastern coast. ECHAM3 identifies larger parts of the continent, particularly in south-west Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and large parts of the eastern coast as remaining suitable for lantana invasion into the 2070s.

One consequence of climate change is change in the phenology and distribution of plants, including the date palm ('Phoenix dactylifera' L.). Date palm, as a crop specifically adapted to arid conditions in desert oases and to very high temperatures, may be dramatically affected by climate changes. Some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm growth at the present time will become climatically unsuitable in the future, while other areas that are unsuitable under current climate will become suitable in the future. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results of this study indicated that Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran are most affected countries as a result of climate change. In Saudi Arabia, 129 million ha (68%) of currently suitable area is projected to become unsuitable by 2100. However, this is based on climate modelling alone. The actual decrease in area may be much smaller when abiotic and other factors are taken into account. On the other hand, 13 million ha (33%) of currently unsuitable area is projected to become suitable by 2100 in Iran. Additionally, by 2050, Israel, Jordan and western Syria will become climatically more suitable. Cold and heat stresses will play a significant role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations to identify areas for cultivation of this profitable crop in the future, and to address those areas that will need greater attention because they are becoming marginal regions for date palm cultivation.

The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) ('Elaeis guineensis'). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A processoriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.