'Merremia peltata' is a species with uncertain status in the island nations of the Pacific region. It has been designated introduced and invasive in some countries whereas it is considered native in others. Recent increase in its abundance across some island landscapes have led to calls for its designation as an invasive species of environmental concern with biological control being suggested as a control strategy. Climate change will add to the complications of managing this species since changes in climate will influence its range limits. In this study, we develop a process-oriented niche model of 'M. peltata' using CLIMEX to investigate the impacts of climate change on its potential distribution. Information on the climatic requirements of 'M. peltata' and its current geographic distribution were used to calibrate the model. The results indicate that under current climate, 273,132 km2 of the land area in the region is climatically unsuitable or marginal for 'M. peltata' whereas 664,524 km2 is suitable to highly suitable. Under current climate, areas of climatic suitability for 'M. peltata' were identified on the archipelagos of Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. By the end of the century, some archipelagos like Fiji, Hawaii, New Caledonia and Vanuatu will probably become more suitable while PNG and Solomon Islands become less suitable for 'M. peltata'. The results can be used to inform biosecurity planning, management and conservation strategies on islands.

BACKGROUND: The sunn pest, 'Eurygaster integriceps' (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. RESULTS: Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for 'E. integriceps' is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. CONCLUSION: Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion.

Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm ('Phoenix dactylifera' L.) cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries' economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation.

Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity which may be intensified by the effects of climate change, particularly if favourable climate conditions allow invasives to spread to new areas. This research explores the combined effects of climate change and soil drainage on the potential future distribution of 'Lantana camara' L. (lantana) in Queensland, Australia. Lantana is an invasive woody shrub species that has a profound economic and environmental impact worldwide. CLIMEX was used to develop a process-based niche model of lantana to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of climate change. These models were run with the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Further refinements of the potential distributions were carried out through the integration of fine scale soil drainage data in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results from both GCMs show a progressive reduction in climatic suitability for lantana in Queensland. The MIROC-H projects a larger area as remaining at risk of lantana invasion in 2100 compared to CSIRO-Mk3.0. Inclusion of soil drainage data results in a more refined distribution. Overall results show a dramatic reduction in potential distribution of lantana in Queensland in the long term (2100). However, in the short term (2030), areas such as South East Queensland and the Wet Tropics, both regions of significant ecological importance, remain at risk of invasion consistently under both GCMs and with both the climate only and climate and soil drainage models. Management of lantana in these regions will need to be prioritized to protect environmental assets of ecological significance.

This research examines the impacts of climate change on the potential future distribution of 'Lantana camara' L., a highly invasive species, in continental Australia. A process-based niche model of lantana is developed, using CLIMEX software, to estimate its potential distribution. The likely impact of climate change is explored using climate data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs), Echam Mark 3 (ECHAM3) and Hadley Mark 2 (HadCM2). The models are run with high as well as low emission scenarios projected 20 years (2030s) and 50 years (2070s) into the future. Both GCMs show a southward shift in distribution based on the climate data. Suitable areas for 'L. camara' are identified well into the 2070s. Some of these areas coincide with bioregions containing endangered ecological communities which need to be prioritized for management actions. HadCM2 shows a more restricted lantana distribution with most of the continent becoming unsuitable by the 2070s except for some areas of suitability along the eastern coast. ECHAM3 identifies larger parts of the continent, particularly in south-west Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and large parts of the eastern coast as remaining suitable for lantana invasion into the 2070s.

The small island nations and territories of the Pacific region are low-lying with a high ratio of shore- line to land area. These characteristics intensify the susceptibility of the islands and the biodiversity that they support to environmental changes. The islands are already experiencing higher temperatures, shifts in rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and changes in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events. This study undertook a broad-scale assessment of the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on the threatened terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity of 23 countries and territories in the region. A database of 'indicative susceptibility' of islands to climatic and oceanographic processes was used with the distribution data of 150 threatened terrestrial vertebrate species downloaded from International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Fifty six percent of these species were endemic to the region. Thirty islands spread over five countries were identified which supported three or more threatened species but were also ranked as very highly or highly susceptible to climatic and oceanographic processes. Twelve additional species were identified, three of which are critically endangered, with distribution on islands with very high or high susceptibility. An analysis with the global protected area network dataset showed that none of the identified islands occurred in a conservation area. A more forward looking conservation strategy would involve prioritization programmes which anticipate the impacts of climate change so that future species' ranges and "climate refugia" can be identified especially if translocation is essential for the protection of threatened biodiversity.

The islands of the Pacific region hold three of the 35 global biodiversity hotspots with large numbers of endemic species. Global climate change will exacerbate the challenges faced by the biodiversity of this region. In this review, we identify trends in characteristics for 305 terrestrial species threatened by climate change and severe weather according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). We then review the literature on observed and potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity, focusing on the species' characteristics that were identified. High-elevation ecosystems such as cloud montane forests are projected to disappear entirely by the year 2100, with corresponding global losses of their endemic biodiversity. Sea level rise threatens restricted range species on small low-lying atolls. Shifts in distribution may be possible for generalist species, but range shifts will be difficult for species with small distributions, specialized habitat requirements, slow dispersal rates, and species at high elevations. Accurate assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity of the region are difficult because of confusion about nomenclature, the many species unknown to science, the lack of baseline data on species' ecology and distributions, and lack of fine resolution elevation data for very small islands. Furthermore, synergistic interactions of climate change with other threats like habitat loss and invasive species have not been comprehensively assessed. Addressing these knowledge gaps will be difficult for Pacific island nations due to limited financial resources and expertise.

Oceanic island ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasion by exotic species, and this vulnerability may be intensified by the effects of climate change, particularly if favorable climate conditions allow exotic invaders to spread to new areas. Effective management of such species requires knowledge of their potential distribution under current and future climate. This research examines the value of species distribution modeling in invasive species management in small island ecosystems using the specific case of 'Lantana camara' L. invasion in Fiji. A niche model of 'L. camara' was developed using CLIMEX species distribution modeling (SDM) software. Several sources of data were used to develop the model including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The model was used to estimate its potential distribution under historical climate. The CSIRO Mk3.0 Global Climate Model (GCM) was used to explore impacts of climate change on its potential future distribution. The model was run with the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030 and 2070. Large parts of both major islands of Fiji, Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, were shown to have high climatic suitability for 'L. camara'. However, under future climate scenarios, climatic suitability for 'L. camara' in Fiji was projected to contract. The results illustrate that SDMs can play a useful role in formulation of cost-effective invasive species management strategies and the resulting species distribution maps have broad applicability throughout the many islands of the South Pacific region.