Since the late 1980s, Australian forecasters have used the seasonal climate forecast (SCF) statement 'In the next three months, the probability of getting above median rainfall is 30%.' Study one (n=63) established a baseline of whether laypersons interpreted this statement as forecasting wetter or drier conditions than normal. Although the statement is forecasting a greater likelihood of drier conditions than normal, 76% incorrectly interpreted the statement as forecasting a wetter season than normal. Using testing conditions identical to study one, in study two (n = 71), to improve accuracy, we inserted the word only in the statement (i.e. ' ...probability of getting above median rainfall is only 30%'). While the probability itself had not changed, a drop to just 24% errors suggested participants were ambiguous about how to interpret this probability. A body of research by Gigerenzer and others shows peoples' ability to reason with probabilities is enhanced by frequency probabilities rather than single-event probabilities. Study three (n =51) used the frequency (i.e. 3 in 10) rather than single-event (i.e. 30%) format tested in studies one and two. Only 22% made errors showing participants better understood how to interpret the frequency probability. We discuss formats for presenting the SCF and argue the frequency format more effectively conveys the chance nature of forecasts.

In recent years, the global community has suffered uncertainty and threats to safety due to a variety of events, including terrorist attacks, large-scale accidents, natural disasters, and international conflicts. Indirect engagement with these events is made possible through the media. Numerous studies have found negative psychological outcomes following indirect exposure to trauma, either via media coverage or through care of people directly impacted. If media has the potential to effect even small negative changes in psychological health, then cumulative or more intense exposure might lead to more substantive effects.
This thesis explored whether trauma-related media consumption and ensuing social discussions may trigger a unique form of distress, referred to as Anticipatory Traumatic Reaction (ATR). This construct is based on the dual scaffold of (1) the diagnostic criteria of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) considered sub-clinically and (2) emotions, cognitions, and behaviours that have been associated with secondary exposure to trauma. Specifically, ATR is conceptualised as involving people overestimating future risk (for themselves or significant others) of traumatic events presented in the media and experiencing distress relating to feared outcomes. Affected individuals might engage in thoughts or behaviours designed to reduce uncertainty or prepare for adverse events and experience disruptions in day-to-day functioning.
A total of six studies (reported in the format of five stand-alone articles) were conducted. Study 1 was a quantitative meta-analysis of experimental studies that evaluated the overall effect of threat-related media on psychological outcomes. This study confirmed the association between trauma-related media exposure and negative psychological outcomes and provided evidence to support a causal pathway. Studies 2 and 3 (reported in a single journal article) generated a new psychometric measure to assess the novel construct of ATR and found preliminary evidence of this form of distress in a general population of Australians. Study 2 used exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis to construct a scale with three latent variables (feelings, preparation, and disruptions relating to ATR) and correlational analyses found evidence of convergent and discriminant validity for the scale. Study 3 provided additional validation of the scale, examined links with conceptually related variables pertaining to media consumption, and provided evidence for ATR as a construct that, despite some overlap, is separate and distinct from PTSD. The results also indicated that higher levels of ATR are associated with a greater degree of engagement with threat-related media and social discussions. Further, the results suggested that younger people might be at greater risk of ATR than older people, and that this may be partially accounted for by a greater proportion of social media news-gathering by younger people.
Study 4 explored possible links between ATR and a reaction to another form of secondary exposure to trauma – compassion fatigue, which occurs as a consequence of providing a caring role for traumatised individuals. The results suggested that high levels of ATR may exacerbate levels of depression, anxiety, and stress, potentially putting care workers at greater risk of job burnout. Study 5, a meta-analytic review of the efficacy of mindfulness interventions for treating PTSD, indicated that, across studies, mindfulness was effective in reducing symptoms of PTSD. Given some symptomatic and conceptual similarities between PTSD and ATR, this finding pointed to mindfulness as a potentially useful technique for mitigating ATR. The final study, Study 6, assessed proposed risk factors for ATR and used an online experiment with random assignment to test a series of brief interventions to attenuate ATR. The findings suggested that risk factors for experiencing higher levels of ATR included being female, being younger, living with a mental illness, repetitive negative thinking, intolerance of uncertainty, personal distress empathy, fantasy empathy, and a concern about world politics. Both a cognitive intervention to address probability neglect and a mindfulness intervention showed promise in attenuating momentary ATR.
The current research provides preliminary evidence for ATR as a newly identified psychological condition that may occur for some people in response to media exposure and social discussions of disasters and large-scale threats. If, as suggested by the results of this research, people with existing mental illness are at greater risk for ATR and that ATR might exacerbate existing symptoms, it will be important to identify vulnerable subsets of this population so that clinicians can intervene to reduce ATR and limit distress. Because media exposure to traumatic events is a basis for ATR, the findings have implications for presentation of media content. This thesis adds to the body of knowledge in the fields of trauma, social psychology, and clinical practice.

This study aimed to explore unique environmental factors impacting differential academic trajectories among Australian school students. Monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs who were consistently discordant in results of nationwide standardized tests of reading, numeracy or writing between Grades 3 and 9 were identified. MZ twins control for genes, gender, age, and aspects of the home and school environment shared by twins. Thus, any difference between MZ twins in academic outcomes can be attributed to the unique environment experienced by each twin. From 551 MZ twin pairs with three or four sets of test results, we identified 55 pairs who were substantially and consistently discordant in reading, numeracy or writing between Grades 3 and 9. Parents were contacted for interview, resulting in 40 semi-structured interviews. Qualitative data analysis revealed three major themes, interpreted by parents as possible contributors to persistent academic discordance: biological mechanisms, school-based factors, and personal factors. We discuss implications for educational practice, policy, and research.

We partitioned early childhood reading into genetic and environmental sources of variance and examined the full distribution of ability levels from low through normal to high as computed by quantile regression. The full sample comprised twin pairs measured at preschool (n = 977), kindergarten (n = 1028), grade 1 (n = 999), and grade 2 (n = 1000). Quantile regression analyses of the full distribution of literacy ability showed genetic influence in all grades from preschool to grade 2. At preschool, the low end of the distribution had higher genetic influence than the high end of the distribution and the shared environment influence was the opposite. These shared environment influences of preschool became insignificant with formal schooling. This suggests that higher scores in pre-literacy skills (preschool) are more influenced by shared environment factors, though these are short-lived. This study discusses the factors that may be influencing the results.

This study investigated the relationship and interactions between compassion fatigue and anticipatory traumatic reaction (ATR), both conditions arising from secondary exposure to trauma. Compassion fatigue, which often occurs for caring professionals, involves symptoms of secondary traumatic stress and job burnout. ATR is a future-focused form of distress arising from media reports and social discussions of large-scale negative events and threats. A cohort of 48 youth workers from a not-for-profit company located in the New England region completed measures of secondary traumatic stress, burnout, compassion satisfaction, general distress, and anticipatory traumatic reaction. Surveys were completed via the online Qualtrics platform. Results showed that ATR magnified the relationship between secondary traumatic stress and general distress. Moderated mediation analyses indicated that anticipatory traumatic reaction interacted with general distress in connecting secondary traumatic stress with burnout. High levels of ATR may exacerbate distress, potentially putting care workers at greater risk of burnout.

Poker-machine gamblers have been demonstrated to report increases in the urge to gamble following exposure to salient gambling cues. However, the processes which contribute to this urge to gamble remain to be understood. The present study aimed to investigate whether changes in the conscious experience of visual imagery, rationality and volitional control (over one’s thoughts, images and attention) predicted changes in the urge to gamble following exposure to a gambling cue. Thirty-one regular poker-machine gamblers who reported at least low levels of problem gambling on the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), were recruited to complete an online cue-reactivity experiment. Participants completed the PGSI, the visual imagery, rationality and volitional control subscales of the Phenomenology of Consciousness Inventory (PCI), and a visual analogue scale (VAS) assessing urge to gamble. Participants completed the PCI subscales and VAS at baseline, following a neutral video cue and following a gambling video cue. Urge to gamble was found to significantly increase from neutral cue to gambling cue (while controlling for baseline urge) and this increase was predicted by PGSI score. After accounting for the effects of problem-gambling severity, cue-reactive visual imagery, rationality and volitional control significantly improved the prediction of cue-reactive urge to gamble. The small sample size and limited participant characteristic data restricts the generalizability of the findings. Nevertheless, this is the first study to demonstrate that changes in the subjective experience of visual imagery, volitional control and rationality predict changes in the urge to gamble from neutral to gambling cue. The results suggest that visual imagery, rationality and volitional control may play an important role in the experience of the urge to gamble in poker-machine gamblers.

The genetic factor structure of a range of learning measures was explored in twin children, recruited in preschool and followed to Grade 2 (N = 2,084). Measures of orthographic learning and word reading were included in the analyses to determine how these patterned with the learning processes. An exploratory factor analysis of the genetic correlations among the variables indicated a three-factor model. Vocabulary tests loaded on the first factor, the Grade 2 measures of word reading and orthographic learning, plus preschool letter knowledge, loaded on the second, and the third was characterized by tests of verbal short-term memory. The three genetic factors correlated, with the second (print) factor showing the most specificity. We conclude that genetically influenced learning processes underlying print-speech integration, foreshadowed by preschool letter knowledge, have a degree of independence from genetic factors affecting spoken language. We also argue that the psychology and genetics of associative learning be afforded a more central place in studies of reading (dis)ability and suggest some links to molecular studies of the genetics of learning.

We examined the extent to which genes and the environment contributed to variation in and covariation among reading, spelling, grammar and punctuation, writing, and numeracy in Australian school children in Grades 3, 5, 7, and 9. Heritability was generally high: reading .58-.71 (excepting Grade 5 girls), spelling .68-.78; grammar and punctuation .52-.66, writing .39-.52, and numeracy .39-.79. Boys' performance varied more than girls in spelling and numeracy, and the common environment was a greater influence in girls than boys in Grade 3 numeracy and Grade 5 reading. Independent pathway models showed similar genetic and environmental structures at each grade with approximately one third to one half of the variation in each domain due to genes that influenced all domains. The covariation among the domains was largely mediated by genes. Results suggest substantial uniformity in the environmental factors influencing these academic domains.

Generally, academic psychologists are mindful of the fact that, for many students, the study of research methods and statistics is anxiety provoking (Gal et al., 1997). Given the ubiquitous and distributed nature of eLearning systems (Nof et al., 2015), teachers of research methods and statistics need to cultivate an understanding of how to effectively use eLearning tools to inspire psychology students to learn. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to discuss critically how using eLearning systems might engage psychology students in research methods and statistics. First, we critically appraise definitions of eLearning. Second, we examine numerous important pedagogical principles associated with effectively teaching research methods and statistics using eLearning systems. Subsequently, we provide practical examples of our own eLearning-based class activities designed to engage psychology students to learn statistical concepts such as Factor Analysis and Discriminant Function Analysis. Finally, we discuss general trends in eLearning and possible futures that are pertinent to teachers of research methods and statistics in psychology.

We examined the association between proficiency in instructed second language acquisition (ISLA) and previous bilingualism, starting age of ISLA, language anxiety and attitude. The analyses were conducted on 564 adolescent Australian twins. Additionally, by examining discrepancies within approximately 100 pairs of monozygotic twins, we sought to specifically identify the environmental effects related to attitude and anxiety on achievement (i.e. with genetic effects removed). We found a clear relationship between attitude towards language learning and proficiency in the second language. Furthermore, the analyses on the monozygotic twins point to the possibility that higher language anxiety is associated with higher proficiency. On the other hand, bilingualism and starting age of ISLA appear to be unrelated to proficiency in the language being learned.