Accurate yield forecasting in high value fruit tree crops provides vital management information to growers as well as supporting improved decision making, including postharvest handling, storage and forward selling. Current research evaluated the 8 spectral band WorldView 3 (WV-3) with a spatial resolution of 1.2 m, as a tool for exploring the relationship between individual tree canopy reflectance and a number of tree growth parameters, including yield. WV-3 imagery was captured on the 7th of April, 2016, over two Macadamia ('Macadamia integrifolia') and three Avocado ('Persea americana') orchards growing near the Queensland township of Bundaberg, Australia. Using the extent of each block, the WV-3 imagery was sub-setted and classified into 8 Normalised Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) classes. From these classes 6 replicate trees were selected to represent high, medium and low NDVI regions (n=18) and subsequently ground truthed for a number of yield parameters during April and May, 2016. The measured parameters were then correlated against 20 structural and pigment based vegetation indices derived from the 8 band spectral information corresponding to each individual tree canopy (12.6 m2). The results identified a positive relationship between derived vegetation indices (VI) and fruit weight (kg/tree) R2 > 0.69 for Macadamia and R2 > 0.68 for Avocado; and fruit number R2 > 0.6 for Macadamia and R2 > 0.61 for Avocado. The algorithm derived between the optimum VI and yield for each block was then applied across the entire block to derive a yield map. The results show that remote sensing of tree canopy condition can be used to measure yield parameters in Macadamia and Avocado grown in the Bundaberg region.

Satellite imagery has been demonstrated to be an effective technology for producing accurate pre-harvest estimates in many agricultural crops. For Australian sugarcane, yield forecasting models have been developed from a single date SPOT satellite image acquired around peak crop growth. However, a failure to acquire a SPOT image at this critical growth stage, from continued cloud cover or from competition for the satellite, can prevent an image being captured and therefore a forecast being made for that season. In order to reduce the reliance on a single image capture and to improve the accuracies of the forecasts themselves, time series yield prediction models have been developed for eight sugarcane growing regions using multiple years of free Landsat satellite images. In addition to the forecasting of average regional yield, an automated computational and programming procedure enabling the derivation of crop vigour variability (GNDVI) maps from the freely available Sentinel 2 satellite imagery was developed. These maps, produced for 15 sugarcane growing regions during the 2017 growing season, identify both variations in crop vigour across regions and within every individual crop. These outputs were made available to collaborating mills within each growing region. This paper presents the accuracies achieved from the time series yield forecasting models versus actual 2017 yields for the respective regions, as well as provides an example of the derived mapping outputs.

Accurate with-in season yield prediction is important for the Australian sugarcane industry as it supports crop management and decision making processes, including those associated with harvest scheduling, storage, milling, and forward selling. In a recent study, a quadratic model was developed from multi-temporal Landsat imagery (30 m spatial resolution) acquired between 2001-2014 (15th November to 31st July) for the prediction of sugarcane yield grown in the Bundaberg region of Queensland, Australia. The resultant high accuracy of prediction achieved from the Bundaberg model for the 2015 and 2016 seasons inspired the development of similar models for the Tully and Mackay growing regions. As with the Bundaberg model, historical Landsat imagery was acquired over a 12 year (Tully) and 10 year (Mackay) period with the capture window again specified to be between 1st November to 30th June to coincide with the sugarcane growing season. All Landsat images were downloaded and processed using Python programing to automate image processing and data extraction. This allowed the model to be applied rapidly over large areas. For each region, the average green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) for all sugarcane crops was extracted from each image and overlayed onto one time scale 1st November to 30th June. Using the quadratic model derived from each regional data set, the maximum GNDVI achieved for each season was calculated and regressed against the corresponding annual average regional sugarcane yield producing strong correlation for both Tully (R2 = 0.89 and RMSE = 5.5 t/ha) and Mackay (R2 = 0.63 and RMSE = 5.3 t/ha). Moreover, the establishment of an annual crop growth profile from each quadratic model has enabled a benchmark of historic crop development to be derived. Any deviation of future crops from this benchmark can be used as an indicator of widespread abiotic or biotic constraints. As well as regional forecasts, the yield algorithms can also be applied at the pixel level to allow individual yield maps to be derived and delivered near real time to all Australian growers and millers.

Accurate pre-harvest estimation of avocado (Persea americana cv. Haas) yield offers a range of benefits to industry and growers. Currently there is no commercial yield monitor available for avocado tree crops and the manual count method used for yield forecasting can be highly inaccurate. Remote sensing using satellite imagery offers a potential means to achieve accurate pre-harvest yield forecasting. This study evaluated the accuracies of high resolution WorldView (WV) 2 and 3 satellite imagery and targeted field sampling for the pre-harvest prediction of total fruit weight (kg·tree⁻¹) and average fruit size (g) and for mapping the spatial distribution of these yield parameters across the orchard block. WV 2 satellite imagery was acquired over two avocado orchards during 2014, and WV3 imagery was acquired in 2016 and 2017 over these same two orchards plus an additional three orchards. Sample trees representing high, medium and low vigour zones were selected from normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from the WV images and sampled for total fruit weight (kg·tree⁻¹) and average fruit size (g) per tree. For each sample tree, spectral reflectance data was extracted from the eight band multispectral WV imagery and 18 vegetation indices (VIs) derived. Principal component analysis (PCA) and non-linear regression analysis was applied to each of the derived VIs to determine the index with the strongest relationship to the measured total fruit weight and average fruit size. For all trees measured over the three year period (2014, 2016, and 2017) a consistent positive relationship was identified between the VI using near infrared band one and the red edge band (RENDVI1) to both total fruit weight (kg·tree⁻¹) (R² = 0.45, 0.28, and 0.29 respectively) and average fruit size (g) (R² = 0.56, 0.37, and 0.29 respectively) across all orchard blocks. Separate analysis of each orchard block produced higher R² values as well as identifying different optimal VIs for each orchard block and year. This suggests orchard location and growing season are influencing the relationship of spectral reflectance to total fruit weight and average fruit size. Classified maps of avocado yield (kg·tree⁻¹) and average fruit size per tree (g) were produced using the relationships developed for each orchard block. Using the relationships derived between the measured yield parameters and the optimal VIs, total fruit yield (kg) was calculated for each of the five sampled blocks for the 2016 and 2017 seasons and compared to actual yield at time of harvest and pre-season grower estimates. Prediction accuracies achieved for each block far exceeded those provided by the grower estimates.