2018, Muir, Jasmine, Robson, Andrew, Rahman, M M

Satellite imagery has been demonstrated to be an effective technology for producing accurate pre-harvest estimates in many agricultural crops. For Australian sugarcane, yield forecasting models have been developed from a single date SPOT satellite image acquired around peak crop growth. However, a failure to acquire a SPOT image at this critical growth stage, from continued cloud cover or from competition for the satellite, can prevent an image being captured and therefore a forecast being made for that season. In order to reduce the reliance on a single image capture and to improve the accuracies of the forecasts themselves, time series yield prediction models have been developed for eight sugarcane growing regions using multiple years of free Landsat satellite images. In addition to the forecasting of average regional yield, an automated computational and programming procedure enabling the derivation of crop vigour variability (GNDVI) maps from the freely available Sentinel 2 satellite imagery was developed. These maps, produced for 15 sugarcane growing regions during the 2017 growing season, identify both variations in crop vigour across regions and within every individual crop. These outputs were made available to collaborating mills within each growing region. This paper presents the accuracies achieved from the time series yield forecasting models versus actual 2017 yields for the respective regions, as well as provides an example of the derived mapping outputs.

2017, Rahman, Muhammad Moshiur, Muir, Jasmine, Robson, Andrew

Accurate with-in season yield prediction is important for the Australian sugarcane industry as it supports crop management and decision making processes, including those associated with harvest scheduling, storage, milling, and forward selling. In a recent study, a quadratic model was developed from multi-temporal Landsat imagery (30 m spatial resolution) acquired between 2001-2014 (15th November to 31st July) for the prediction of sugarcane yield grown in the Bundaberg region of Queensland, Australia. The resultant high accuracy of prediction achieved from the Bundaberg model for the 2015 and 2016 seasons inspired the development of similar models for the Tully and Mackay growing regions. As with the Bundaberg model, historical Landsat imagery was acquired over a 12 year (Tully) and 10 year (Mackay) period with the capture window again specified to be between 1st November to 30th June to coincide with the sugarcane growing season. All Landsat images were downloaded and processed using Python programing to automate image processing and data extraction. This allowed the model to be applied rapidly over large areas. For each region, the average green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) for all sugarcane crops was extracted from each image and overlayed onto one time scale 1st November to 30th June. Using the quadratic model derived from each regional data set, the maximum GNDVI achieved for each season was calculated and regressed against the corresponding annual average regional sugarcane yield producing strong correlation for both Tully (R2 = 0.89 and RMSE = 5.5 t/ha) and Mackay (R2 = 0.63 and RMSE = 5.3 t/ha). Moreover, the establishment of an annual crop growth profile from each quadratic model has enabled a benchmark of historic crop development to be derived. Any deviation of future crops from this benchmark can be used as an indicator of widespread abiotic or biotic constraints. As well as regional forecasts, the yield algorithms can also be applied at the pixel level to allow individual yield maps to be derived and delivered near real time to all Australian growers and millers.