The application of fertilisers to pastures in the high rainfall regions of southern Australia has contributed to large increases in carrying capacity following the widespread adoption of the practice since the late 1940s. Recently, large shifts in the worldwide demand for fertiliser inputs have lead to large rises in the cost of fertiliser inputs. These increasing costs have significant potential ramifications on the future management of soil fertility and its interaction with the persistence and profitability of sown pastures, especially during periods of climatic uncertainty. Adynamic pasture resource development simulation model was used to investigate the implications of fertiliser rates and costs on the efficient management of soil fertility under climatic uncertainty. The framework also allowed the investigation of how the management of soil fertility interacts with the utilisation of pasture resources through different stocking rates. In the application of this method to the Cicerone Project farmlets case study, fertiliser input costs were found to influence the optimal combination of fertiliser inputs and stocking rate. Analyses of the dynamic interaction between fertiliser application and cost, stocking rate and the persistence of desirable species enabled the identification of the most risk-efficient strategies. The implications for grazing industries in the high rainfall regions of southern Australia are discussed.

Cassava is an important tropical root crop for food security and national economies. In Ghana, the roots are used in popular local cuisines as well as in brewery, bakery, confectionery and plywood industries. A number of high-yielding and disease-resistant varieties are released and promoted to increase productivity and improve rural welfare. The study used a sequential mixed-method approach to identify, among drivers and impediments, the dissemination mechanism with highest impact on the adoption of improved cassava varieties (ICVs) and its intensity. The analyses helped estimate the impact of ICV adoption on productivity and households' livelihood, and to provide evidence of technological, managerial, and environmental gaps between adopters and non-adopters. Data were collected in 2014 from 608 randomly selected cassava-producing households in 14 communities in six districts of the Ashanti and Brong-Ahafo regions. Summary statistics reveal a 25 percent ICV adoption rate. Econometric analyses indicate significant and positive effects on the likelihood of households' ICV adoption for group members, the number of varieties planted, the number of livestock owned and information received mostly through innovation platforms (IPs). Impediments to ICV adoption include the location in the Ashanti region, household size, distances to the nearest tarred road and market, and grey-skin colour of ICVs. Results from propensity score matching and instrumental variable approaches indicate positive impacts of ICV adoption on cassava and whole-farm productivities and on per-capita annual crop income. Adopters appear to incur lower total annual per-capita expenditures and expenditures on food than non-adopters but spend more on children’s education. Bias-corrected stochastic output distance functions and stochastic metafrontier production functions showed strong evidence of technological, managerial, and environmental gaps between adopters and non-adopters in both cassava and whole-farm production. In both cases, adopters were found to operate on higher frontiers and to be more efficient than non-adopters. Adopters also appear to operate in a more favourable 2 production environment than non-adopters. The study provides strong evidence of inefficiency in cassava production for both ICV adopters and non-adopters. Findings imply that policy measures could be taken to increase the 25 percent ICV adoption rate through the establishment of IPs, focusing on households in Brong-Ahafo and those who are group members that integrate livestock-farming with cassava production. ICV adoption is expected to lead to increased productivity through technological change and enhanced efficiency. Moreover, the adoption of ICVs has the potential to increase crop incomes, food security and result in higher investment in children’s education, especially for female-headed households.

This study addresses the problem of balancing the trade-offs between the need for animal production, profit, and the goal of achieving persistence of desirable species within grazing systems. The bioeconomic framework applied in this study takes into account the impact of climate risk and the management of pastures and grazing rules on the botanical composition of the pasture resource, a factor that impacts on livestock production and economic returns over time. The framework establishes the links between inputs, the state of the pasture resource and outputs, to identify optimal pasture development strategies. The analysis is based on the application of a dynamic pasture resource development simulation model within a seasonal stochastic dynamic programming framework. This enables the derivation of optimum decisions within complex grazing enterprises, over both short-term tactical (such as grazing rest) and long-term strategic (such as pasture renovation) time frames and under climatic uncertainty. The simulation model is parameterised using data and systems from the Cicerone Project farmlet experiment. Results indicate that the strategic decision of pasture renovation should only be considered when pastures are in a severely degraded state, whereas the tactical use of grazing rest or low stocking rates should be considered as the most profitable means of maintaining adequate proportions of desirable species within a pasture sward. The optimal stocking rates identified reflected a pattern which may best be described as a seasonal saving and consumption cycle. The optimal tactical and strategic decisions at different pasture states, based on biomass and species composition, varies both between seasons and in response to the imposed soil fertility regime. Implications of these findings at the whole-farm level are discussed in the context of the Cicerone Project farmlets.

On the New South Wales Northern Tablelands, sheep, wool and beef cattle production account for most agricultural output. The industries have been challenged in recent years by environmental and economic factors and are therefore looking for modified or alternative livestock management systems that are capable of sustaining profitability. The Cicerone Project aimed to address these issues by comparing three different grazing and pasture improvement systems. Some recent livestock industry analyses have been based on gross margins which do not include overhead costs. This is an important limitation; economic analysis needs to report key whole-farm business performance measures since overhead costs can differ significantly between livestock management systems.A representative farm approach was used to compare the profitability of the three different livestock management systems. Commercial-scale whole-farm and cash flow analyses over a 5-year period were used to evaluate profitability. No particular system could be recommended to graziers because the test period was not sufficiently representative of the long-term climate to make an adequate assessment about their long-term profitability. Nevertheless, it is apparent that whole-farm level budgets are essential for comparing the overall profitability of different livestock management systems. It is concluded that analysts, consultants and graziers should use whole-farm and cash flow analyses to gauge profitability of different livestock management systems particularly where sustainability issues are important.

The Cicerone farmlet experiment, conducted on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia, explored aspects of profitability and sustainability under three different whole-farmlet management regimes. The 5-year period over which the treatments were measured occurred over a period of generally below-average rainfall, hence responses to management treatments were limited. A modelling approach was used to estimate profitability over a longer period representing the variable climate of the region. A stochastic discounted cash flow model was developed to estimate economic returns of two of the Cicerone management system treatments scaled up from the farmlet scale (53 ha) to the size of a typical commercial farm in the region (920 ha) over a 20-year period. Several scenarios were used to estimate the commercial-scale returns under different rates of pasture improvement and stocking rates. Over the long-term, Farm A was found to be more profitable but also more risky (in terms of variation around the mean of cumulative discounted cash flow) than the 'typical' Farm B management system. If livestock managers choose to adopt a pasture improvement strategy based on renovating pastures and increasing soil fertility, they are more likely to achieve higher net worth with more moderate rates of pasture improvement than those explored on Farm A where a high rate of pasture improvement had been implemented in order to quickly differentiate treatments.

The Cicerone Project conducted a grazed farmlet experiment on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia, from July 2000 to December 2006, to address questions raised by local graziers concerning how they might improve the profitability and sustainability of their grazing enterprises. This unreplicated experiment examined three management systems at a whole-farmlet scale. The control farmlet (farmlet B) represented typical management for the region, with flexible rotational grazing and moderate inputs.A second farmlet (farmlet A) also used flexible rotational grazing but had a higher level of pasture renovation and soil fertility, while the third farmlet (farmlet C) had the same moderate inputs as farmlet B but employed intensive rotational grazing. The present paper provides an integrated overview of the results collated from component papers and discusses the inferences that can be drawn from what was a complex, agroecosystem experiment. The measurements recorded both early and late in the experiment were tabulated for each of the farmlets and compared with each other as relative proportions, allowing visual presentation on a common, indexed scale. Because of equivalent starting conditions, there was little difference between farmlets early in the experimental period (2000–01) across a wide array of measured parameters, including herbage mass, potential pasture growth rate, liveweight, wool production per head, stocking rate, gross margin and equity. Although the experiment experienced drier-than-average conditions, marked differences emerged among farmlets over time, due to the effects of treatments. During the latter half of the experimental period (2003–06), farmlet A showed numerous positive and a few negative consequences of the higher rate of pasture renovation and increased soil fertility compared with the other two farmlets. While intensive rotational grazing resulted in superior control of gastrointestinal nematodes and slightly finer wool, this system had few effects on pastures and no positive effects on sheep liveweights, wool production or stocking rate. Whereas farmlet A showed higher gross margins, it had a negative and lower short-term cash position than did farmlets B and C, due largely to the artificially high rate of pasture renovation undertaken on this farmlet during the experiment. Although farmlet B had the highest cash position at the end of the experiment, this came at a cost of the declining quality of its pastures. Modelling of the farmlet systems allowed the results to be considered over the longer timeframes needed to assess sustainability. Thus, returns on investment were compared over realistic amortisation periods and produced outcomes based on long-term climatic expectations which were compared with those that arose under the drier-than-average conditions experienced during the experimental period. The main factors responsible for lifting the productivity of farmlet A were the sowing of temperate species and increased soil fertility, which enhanced the amount of legume and increased pasture quality and potential pasture growth. The factor that affected farmlet C most was the low proportion of the farmlet grazed at any one time, with high stock density imposed during grazing, which decreased feed intake quality. The paper concludes that more profitable and sustainable outcomes are most likely to arise from grazing enterprises that are proactively managed towards optimal outcomes by maintaining sufficient desirable perennial grasses with adequate legume content, enhancing soil fertility and employing flexible rotational grazing.

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.