GDP Growth and the Interdependency of Volatility Spillovers
This paper examines the dynamics of cross-country GDP volatility transmission and their conditional correlations. We use quarterly data (1961-2008) for Australia, Canada, the UK and the US to construct and estimate a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model. According to the results from the mean growth equations, we identified significant cross-country GDP growth spillover among these countries. Furthermore, the growth volatility between the US and Canada indicates the highest conditional correlation. As expected, we also found that the shock influences are mainly exerted by the larger economies onto the smaller economies.
Examining the nature of the relationship between Tapis crude oil and Singapore petrol prices
Fuel prices play a crucial role in the supply side of many economies across the globe. Hence, it is important to ensure that fuel pricing is efficient and free from any asymmetric behaviour. This paper examines the long- and short-run relationships between the price of unleaded petrol in Singapore (Mogas95) and the price of Tapis crude oil using 4,929 daily observations (4 June 1993-25 April 2012). As expected, we found that these two key energy indicators are cointegrated. We then developed a modelling framework that allowed us to test for adjustment asymmetries that distinguish between the size and sign of disequilibria, proxied by three different error correction terms. We found no significant evidence of any asymmetric pricing behaviour and market inefficiency. However, our results revealed a significant weekly cyclical pattern, with petrol being more expensive on Thursdays/Fridays than the rest of the week.
Analysing banks' intermediation and operational performance using the Hicks-Moorsteen TFP index: The case of Iran
In order to analyse the impact of policy reforms on the performance of the banking sector in Iran we present a decomposition of the Hicks-Moorsteen Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This entails a comparison of both the intermediate and operating performances of different types of banks in the pre- and post-reform eras. Our results show that under the intermediation approach, state-owned banks (public banks) were considerably more efficient than private banks in the post-regulation period. In contrast, under the operating approach, private banks were fully technically efficient and mix efficient in both pre and post-reform eras. This paper highlights the importance of analysing performance from multiple perspectives. The findings reflect public banks' mission to maximise loans to target groups while private banks are motivated more by financial profit.
Financial Crises And International Stock Market Volatility Transmission
This paper examines the interplay between stock market returns and their volatility, focusing on the Asian and global financial crises of 1997-98 and 2008-09 for Australia, Singapore, the UK, and the US. We use a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and weekly data (January 1992-June 2009). Based on the results obtained from the mean return equations, we could not find any significant impact on returns arising from the Asian crisis and more recent global financial crises across these four markets. However, both crises significantly increased the stock return volatilities across all of the four markets. Not surprisingly, it is also found that the US stock market is the most crucial market impacting on the volatilities of smaller economies such as Australia. Our results provide evidence of own and cross ARCH and GARCH effects among all four markets, suggesting the existence of significant volatility and cross volatility spillovers across all four markets. A high degree of time-varying co-volatility among these markets indicates that investors will be highly unlikely to benefit from diversifying their financial portfolio by acquiring stocks within these four countries only.
Does the interest rate for business loans respond asymmetrically to changes in the cash rate?
This article examines the dynamic relationship between the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA's) cash rate and the variable interest rate for lending to small businesses. The relationship is evaluated via an asymmetric GARCH model using monthly data spanning from August 1990 to October 2012. Our results show that a 1 percentage point increase in the cash rate results in an instantaneous 1.086 percentage point rise in the variable rate for small businesses, whereas an equivalent 1 percentage point cut only leads to a 0.862 percentage point fall with a delay of up to 2 months. This outcome has obvious implications for the RBA's monetary policy transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of the expansionary policy versus contractionary policy.
The Australian Labour Market in 2007
Both global and domestic economic growth remained robust in 2007 resulting in historically low unemployment and high labour force participation in Australia. However, these favourable labour force statistics were overshadowed for much of the year by a number of other issues such as the continuing drought, high oil and petrol prices and associated inflation and interest rate pressures, a November federal election, and the first full year of the operation of the Work Choices legislation. This article will address each of these issues by presenting an analysis of the macroeconomy and labour market, and reviewing the labour market implications of the Work Choices legislation in Australia.