An alternative approach to the modelling of interest rate pass through and asymmetric adjustment
We propose an alternative approach to examine the nonlinear (asymmetric) behaviour of interest rates which can be both size and sign dependent. Compared to other widely used approaches, our model performs quite well based on two model selection criteria.
How can Iran's black market exchange rate be managed?
Purpose - The Iranian currency (rial) depreciated on average 12.2 per cent per annum against the US dollar during the period 1960-1998 but, despite continued two-digit rates of inflation, the rial has witnessed only a meagre 1.7 per cent fall in its value in the post-1998 era. This paper seeks to examine this perplexing issue by identifying the major long-run determinants of the black market exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach - This paper uses the multivariate cointegration test, a threshold regression model and annual time series data (1960-2008) to determine exactly at what exchange rate the effect of relative prices on the exchange rate has been subject to an asymmetry adjustment process. Findings - It was found that the relative CPIs in Iran and the USA, total stock of foreign debt and the price of crude oil are the major long-run determinants of the black market exchange rate. However, the impact of relative prices (as measured by the magnitude of its elasticity) has significantly diminished from almost unity in the pre-1998 period to less than one-fourth since 1998. Based on the results, if oil prices continue to plunge, liquidity and inflation are out of control and at the same time Iran accumulates more external debt, the exchange rate will eventually exhibit an unprecedented and explosive depreciation in the coming years. Originality/value - No previous study has examined this issue using a threshold regression model without splitting the entire sample into two sections according to an endogenously determined threshold for the exchange rate.
Does the interest rate for business loans respond asymmetrically to changes in the cash rate?
This article examines the dynamic relationship between the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA's) cash rate and the variable interest rate for lending to small businesses. The relationship is evaluated via an asymmetric GARCH model using monthly data spanning from August 1990 to October 2012. Our results show that a 1 percentage point increase in the cash rate results in an instantaneous 1.086 percentage point rise in the variable rate for small businesses, whereas an equivalent 1 percentage point cut only leads to a 0.862 percentage point fall with a delay of up to 2 months. This outcome has obvious implications for the RBA's monetary policy transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of the expansionary policy versus contractionary policy.
Global output growth and volatility spillovers
This article examines discernable patterns of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth co-movements across 29 countries, using consistent time series data (1912-2008). Of these countries, only 12 are found to form three statistically significant groupings (i.e. G6-six Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) European countries, G4-four Anglo-Saxon countries, and G2-two major Asian countries). One may then conclude that, inter alia, geographical proximity, cultural ties, and the level of socio-economic and financial ties among countries determine the global systematic co-movements of growth rates. Our results indicate that any recession in the US initially engulfs other Anglo-Saxon countries as well as G6 and G2 countries, before exerting its adverse knock-on effects to the rest of the world. A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model is also used to examine the transmission of GDP growth across these three groups and their corresponding volatility spillovers. We find significant bi-directional cross-mean spillovers between the G4 and G6 blocs. In terms of cross-volatility spillovers, the estimated persistence varies from a maximum 0.959 (G4-G6) to a minimum of 0.832 (G2-G4).
The pricing behaviour of Australian banks and building societies in the residential mortgage market
This paper examines if the dynamic interplay between the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cash rate and the standard variable mortgage rates of 23 major lenders is subject to both the amount and adjustment asymmetries. Using weekly data (2000-2012), the cash rate and lending rates are pairwise cointegrated. An asymmetric short-run dynamic model is then estimated in which both the size and sign of disequilibria are taken into account. Significant evidence of the adjustment asymmetry is found among 8 lenders (including all foreign subsidiary banks). This paper also finds that the three largest domestic banks pass on the RBA's official rate rises to borrowers more than they do for rate cuts, affecting the efficacy of expansionary versus contractionary monetary policy.
Asymmetric behavior of Australia's Big-4 banks in the mortgage market
This paper presents an alternative framework for modeling the behavior of banks in setting lending and/or saving rates. In a short-run dynamic model, we correct for deviations from the long-run path using three feedback coefficients capturing different disequilibria. This enables us to test for both amount and adjustment asymmetries by considering the size and direction of any deviations.We use this model to examine the relationship between the official cash rate (set by the Reserve Bank of Australia as a monetary policy tool) and the standard variable mortgage rates of Australian Big-4 banks using weekly data from 2001 to 2012. The evidence indicates both types of asymmetries along with synchronized rate-setting behavior. Overall, the banks immediately pass on 120% of any rate rise, but only 85% of any rate cut. Further, when mortgage rates are substantially above the equilibriumpath, we find no significant attempt to lower rates, but faster adjustment when rates are below equilibrium values. This finding has important implications for the RBA's monetary policy transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of the expansionary versus contractionary policy.
International outsourcing of skill intensive tasks and wage inequality
Within the context of a product variety model, this paper examines the impact of international outsourcing of some skill intensive tasks on wage inequality. We consider four possibilities: long-run equilibrium where varieties of producer services are non-traded, long-run equilibrium where varieties of producer services are traded, short-run equilibrium where varieties of producer services are non-traded and short-run equilibrium where varieties of producer services are traded. It is shown that in each case, under certain conditions, international outsourcing can increase skilled-unskilled wage inequality. In the first three cases, outsourcing affects wage inequality directly as well as indirectly. In the short-run equilibrium, where varieties of producer services are traded, international outsourcing increases skilled-unskilled wage inequality only through an indirect channel. In the short-run equilibrium, where all goods are traded, the impact of outsourcing on wage inequality depends solely on the relative size of the income share of capital. Furthermore, in the long-run equilibrium, outsourcing increases the productivity of the industrial sector.
Macroeconomic consequences of increased productivity in less developed economies
This paper examines the impact of improvements in productivity on prices, output, the real wage rate and the balance of payments. Within the context of the model used in this paper, an improvement in productivity can take two alternative forms: (1) a cost saving for a given output and (2) an increase in production without a direct decrease in employment. The results presented are based on a simple model of a small open economy that includes some key features of less developed economies. It is shown that, in the presence of monetary and fiscal restraints, an improvement in productivity leads to increases in output, employment and the real wage and the effect on the balance of payments, in the short and the medium runs, is also positive. We find that whether or not improvement in productivity is import saving plays a crucial role in both comparative static and simulation exercises.
Interest Rate Pass-Through and the Asymmetric Relationship between the Cash Rate and the Mortgage Rate
There is an ongoing controversy over whether banks' mortgage rates rise more rapidly than they fall due to their asymmetric responses to changes in the cash rate. This paper examines the dynamic interplay between the cash rate and the standard variable mortgage rate using monthly data in the post-1989 era. Unlike previous Australian studies, our proposed threshold and asymmetric error-correction models account for both the amount and adjustment asymmetries. We found that the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate rises have a much larger and more instantaneous impact on the mortgage rate than rate cuts.
An empirical analysis of the US stock market and output growth volatility spillover effects on three Anglo-Saxon countries
This paper examines the dynamic and switching effects of volatility spillovers arising from US stock market returns and GDP growth on those of Australia, Canada and the UK. For this purpose, we use quarterly data (1961q1-2013q1) and a constant probability Markov regime switching model. We found that the US stock market volatility significantly affects the stock market volatility of all three countries at least in one of the two specified regimes over time. However, the stock market volatilities in none of the three countries are contemporaneously influenced by the US output volatility even after allowing for two distinct regimes. On the other hand, the US stock market volatility exerts significant influences on the output volatilities of both Australia and the UK. Compared with Australia and the UK, Canada and the US show substantial output volatility co-movements, thereby confirming the close association between the two neighbouring economies through the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). We conclude that shocks emanating from the US stock market have unequivocal flow-on effects on the output and return volatilities of the other economies.