2013, Anwar, Sajid, Valadkhani, Abbas

Within the context of a trivariate vector autoregressive framework that includes the degree of services sector openness, this article examines the link between tourism growth and services sector growth in Singapore. Empirical analysis based on Johansen's cointegration approach shows that the three variables are cointegrated (i.e., a stable long-run relationship exists among tourism growth, the degree of openness of the service sector, and services sector growth). The services and manufacturing sectors are regarded as the twin engines of Singapore's economic growth. It can be argued that tourism growth contributes to economic growth in Singapore through its impact on the services sector.

2012, Arjomandi, Amir, Harvie, Charles, Valadkhani, Abbas

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the efficiency and productivity growth of the Iranian banking industry between 2003 and 2008, encompassing pre- and post-2005-reform years. Design/methodology/approach - The study uses a new decomposition of the Hicks-Moorsteen total factor productivity index developed by O'Donnell to analyse efficiency and productivity changes in a banking context. The advantage of this approach over the popular constant-returns-to-scale Malmquist productivity index is that it is free from any assumptions concerning firms' optimising behaviour, the structure of markets, or returns to scale. The paper assumes that the production technology exhibits variable returns to scale. Findings - The banking industry's technical efficiency level - which had improved between 2003 and 2006 - deteriorated after regulatory changes were introduced in Iran. The results obtained also show that during 2006-2007, the industry's total factor productivity increased by 32 per cent. However, the industry experienced its highest negative scale efficiency rate of 38 per cent (ΔROSE = 0.62) and its highest negative efficiency growth of 43 per cent (ΔEff = 0.57) during this period. The industry also witnessed a strong drop in productivity in 2007-2008. Overall, changes in the production possibility set and scale-efficiency changes exerted dominant effects on productivity changes. Originality/value - This study is the first to use a comprehensive decomposition of the Hicks-Moorsteen TFP index to analyse efficiency and productivity changes in a banking context.

2014, Valadkhani, Abbas, Anwar, Sajid, Arjomandi, Amir

This paper measures the full extent of downward stickiness in credit card interest rates by testing for the amount and adjustment asymmetries. We found that lenders behave asymmetrically in response to changes in the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cash rate. The RBA's rate rises are passed on to borrowers much faster than rate cuts and the aggregate credit card interest rate showed a very resilient degree of downward rigidity. Overall, based on the estimated short-run dynamic model, banks immediately pass on 112% of any RBA's rate rises, but only 53.7% of any rate cut. In other words, the short-run effects of rate cuts were not only less than half of the rate rises but also were delayed on average by two months. As far as changes in the credit card interest rate are concerned, an expansionary monetary policy is thus less effective than a contractionary policy.

2017-10-28, McFarlane, James A, Mounter, Stuart, Blackwell, Boyd, Valadkhani, Abbas

Sustainable development is an integral part of rural Australia. Many rural centres have experienced structural shifts over the past decade and, currently, economic uncertainty seems to be looming in the future given the current volatility of global markets (Introduction). At the time of the study the slowdown in the mining industry had begun and the community’s future, as in many regions across Australia was, and is, a concern (Chapter 3-4). Using economic base models and theory this thesis explores an established community from a bottom up approach (Chapters 2). Figure 1 is a contextual view of the thesis.

The Central West of NSW has a long history dating back to the colonial times in Australia, with a unique and cultural industry that continues to play a pivotal part in its existence. This industry brings people from all over the world seeking an experience that envelops the palette (Chapters 5-6). Surprisingly, no one has ever undertaken a detailed look at this important contributor to the economy (Chapter 5). Nonetheless, this thesis explores the region’s wine industry along with the other sectors of the community over a twenty year period (Chapter 4). This study dissects the past and future through detailed economic base modelling in order to place a numerical figure on an important amenity within the Central West of NSW and importantly the policies that will ground the region’s foundation in the future.

The Australian, New South Wales economies and wine industries were reviewed in order to gain an idea of the Central West’s industrial placement nestled within the larger economies (Chapters 3-4-6). Over 160 wine related business were surveyed in the Central West of NSW compiling a never before taken inventory (Chapter 5). The appropriate economic models were carefully selected along with two new indices. The data were then processed with nine input-output tables generated to examine the structure of the region with projections estimated to 2021 using data from 1981 (Chapters 2-3-6). Wine and Tourism play an important part in the local economy and understanding its linkages helps with policy design (Chapters 5). The impacts of this industry were generated with a set of novel spatial indices that landscapes the varietal palate of Australian wine regions in order to examine and enhance wine regions within Australia a local distinctiveness, provide a varietal price support.

The indices are presented in a series of maps to produce a geo-spatial economic visualisation of the Australian wine industry (Chapter 6). Polices were then reviewed to direct a sustainable long term growth.

The results highlighted the importance of combining economic modelling in order to gain a rigorous perspective on the local economic structure (Chapters 2-3). This careful selection of combined modelling techniques revealed a shift in the area’s dependence from agriculture to mining over the recent decade and the areas where pre-emptive strategies should be directed. Alarmingly also, the results indicate that even though there has been a significant increase to the Central West’s economy due to the mining, the area has not become more economically resilient or diversified and pre-emptive strategies are needed for future employment growth (Chapters 3-4). Furthermore, the local wine industry is significant in regards to local employment and value-added (Chapter 5). The newly developed indices suggest that more other red and white grape varieties (other than the thirty eight main varieties currently grown) should be planted in order to create a more robust varietal palate and price support (Chapter 6). This will also help with varietal marketing strategies very similar to some of the old world wine producers.

The thesis concludes with recommendations that a number of pre-emptive policies and strategies be made towards a number of industry sectors, particularly those that foster innovation and technology that can be harnessed to drive future regional growth (Chapter 4). This means, as the results suggest, shifting polices away from Mining to Agriculture and Trade and Accommodation that envelopes the local wine industry (Chapter 4). In addition, a tourism marketing strategy promoting the region’s food and wine and also that viticulturists plant more of rare grape varieties rather than keeping with the norms of most regions’ varietal mix.

This thesis makes a significant contribution to new knowledge by providing some substantial ‘meat on the bones’ of the prosaic understanding that the ‘wine industry’ is important to the Central West regional economy as in many economies across the globe (Conclusion). The modelling techniques developed in this study can then be applied to other regions both in Australia and internationally. In addition to this our understanding of I-O modelling and economic base theory methods this work does provide evidence that qualitative research is required for accurate policy design (Conclusion). Furthermore, the significance of this research is that the thesis provides essential information about the local economy which is invaluable to both government and industry in assessing and

implementing regional development policy and planning. Lastly, it also provides imperative information that offers practical solutions across key operational areas, including Sales & Marketing, Business Planning, Market Development, Financial Operations and Wine Tourism (Conclusion).

2013, Valadkhani, Abbas, Bollen, Bernard

We propose an alternative approach to examine the nonlinear (asymmetric) behaviour of interest rates which can be both size and sign dependent. Compared to other widely used approaches, our model performs quite well based on two model selection criteria.

2012, Karunanayake, Indika, Valadkhani, Abbas, O'Brien, Martin

This paper examines the dynamics of cross-country GDP volatility transmission and their conditional correlations. We use quarterly data (1961-2008) for Australia, Canada, the UK and the US to construct and estimate a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model. According to the results from the mean growth equations, we identified significant cross-country GDP growth spillover among these countries. Furthermore, the growth volatility between the US and Canada indicates the highest conditional correlation. As expected, we also found that the shock influences are mainly exerted by the larger economies onto the smaller economies.

2010, Valadkhani, Abbas

This paper examines the long-run and short-run determinants of unleaded petrol price in Australia's capital cities using monthly data to find out whether prices respond asymmetrically to external shocks. Based on the cointegration test results and the estimated asymmetric short-run dynamic models, it is found that: (1) in the long-run petrol prices are mainly determined by Tapis crude oil and Singapore petrol prices; (2) there is some evidence of asymmetric price adjustments in the short-run since petrol price increases have been mostly passed on to the consumer faster than price decreases in four capital cities. More specifically, this paper provides convincing evidence in support of asymmetric price adjustments and the "rockets-and-feathers hypothesis" in Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. One can thus argue that there are a significant degree of market inefficiency and/or collusion, requiring a closer government price monitoring and scrutiny.

2008, Valadkhani, Abbas, Chancharat, Surachai

Purpose - This purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence of cointegration and causality between the stock market price indices of Thailand and its major trading partners (Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK and the USA), using monthly data spanning December 1987 to December 2005. Design/methodology/approach - This paper used both the Engle-Granger two-step procedure (assuming no structural breaks) and the Gregory and Hansen test (allowing for one structural break) provide no evidence of a long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and these countries. Findings - Based on the empirical results obtained from these two residual-based cointegration tests, potential long-run benefits exist from diversifying the investment portfolios internationally to reduce the associated systematic risks across countries. However, in the short-run, three unidirectional Granger causalities run from the stock returns of Hong Kong, the Philippines and the UK to those of Thailand, pairwise. Furthermore, there are two unidirectional causalities running from the stock returns of Thailand to those of Indonesia and the USA. Empirical evidence was also found of bidirectional Granger causality, suggesting that the stock returns of Thailand and three of its neighbouring countries (Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan) are interrelated. Originality/value - No previous study examines the possibility that the pair-wise long-run relationship between the stock prices of Thailand and those of both emerging and developed markets may have been subject to a structural break.

2013, Valadkhani, Abbas

This paper examines if the dynamic interplay between the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cash rate and the standard variable mortgage rates of 23 major lenders is subject to both the amount and adjustment asymmetries. Using weekly data (2000-2012), the cash rate and lending rates are pairwise cointegrated. An asymmetric short-run dynamic model is then estimated in which both the size and sign of disequilibria are taken into account. Significant evidence of the adjustment asymmetry is found among 8 lenders (including all foreign subsidiary banks). This paper also finds that the three largest domestic banks pass on the RBA's official rate rises to borrowers more than they do for rate cuts, affecting the efficacy of expansionary versus contractionary monetary policy.

2017, Kennedy, Tom, Rae, Maria, Sheridan, Alison J, Valadkhani, Abbas

This paper extends the debate about redressing persistent gender inequality in Australia by examining the relationship between labour productivity and the wage gap in all states and territories (1986-2013). It is a critical case study as Australia's widening gender wage gap is contrary to other developed nations. Using four different estimation methods, we find that reducing the gap by 10% can boost per capita output up to 3%. To check the robustness of our findings, we also control for the effects of both physical and human capital. Our results suggest there exists a strong business case for eliminating the gender wage gap. Given the tangible benefits to both equity and efficiency, such a goal should be of paramount importance for policy makers.