Farming systems research conducted under dryland conditions is subject to the vagaries of the climate during the experimental period. Whether such an experiment experiences a representative series of climatic years must be examined in relation to the longer term climatic record. The Cicerone Project's farmlet experiment was conducted on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia, to investigate the profitability and sustainability of three different management systems: one managed under typical, moderate-input conditions (farmlet B); a second which employed a higher level of pasture inputs and soil fertility (farmlet A); and a third which focussed on the use of moderate inputs and intensive rotational grazing (farmlet C). The climate experienced during the 6.5-year experimental period was compared with the 118-year climatic record, using a biophysical simulation model of grazed systems. The model utilised the long-term daily climate data as inputs and provided outputs that allowed comparison of parameters known to affect grazed pastures. Modelled soil-available water, the number of soil moisture stress days (SMSDs) limiting pasture growth, and growth indices over the experimental period (2000-06) were compared with data over the climatic record from 1890 to 2007. SMSDs were defined as when the modelled available soil moisture to a depth of 300 mm was <17% of water-holding capacity. In addition, minimum temperatures and, in particular, the frequency of frosts, were compared with medium-term (1981-2011) temperature records. Wavelet transforms of rainfall and modelled available soil water data were used to separate profile features of these parameters from the noise components of the data. Over the experimental period, both rainfall and available soil water were more commonly significantly below than above the 95% confidence intervals of both parameters. In addition, there was an increased frequency of severe frosting during the dry winters experienced over the 6.5-year period. These dry and cold conditions were likely to have limited the responses to the pasture and grazing management treatments imposed on the three farmlets. In particular, lower than average levels of available soil water were likely to have constrained pasture production, threatened pasture persistence, and reduced the response of the pasture to available soil nutrients and, as a consequence, livestock production and economic outcomes. Ideally, dryland field experimentation should be conducted over a representative range of climatic conditions, including soil moisture conditions both drier and wetter than average. The drier than average conditions, combined with a higher than normal frequency of severe frosts, mean that the results from the Cicerone Project's farmlet experiment need to be viewed in the context of the climate experienced over this 6.5-year period.

The Cicerone Project conducted a grazed farmlet experiment on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia, from July 2000 to December 2006, to address questions raised by local graziers concerning how they might improve the profitability and sustainability of their grazing enterprises. This unreplicated experiment examined three management systems at a whole-farmlet scale. The control farmlet (farmlet B) represented typical management for the region, with flexible rotational grazing and moderate inputs.A second farmlet (farmlet A) also used flexible rotational grazing but had a higher level of pasture renovation and soil fertility, while the third farmlet (farmlet C) had the same moderate inputs as farmlet B but employed intensive rotational grazing. The present paper provides an integrated overview of the results collated from component papers and discusses the inferences that can be drawn from what was a complex, agroecosystem experiment. The measurements recorded both early and late in the experiment were tabulated for each of the farmlets and compared with each other as relative proportions, allowing visual presentation on a common, indexed scale. Because of equivalent starting conditions, there was little difference between farmlets early in the experimental period (2000–01) across a wide array of measured parameters, including herbage mass, potential pasture growth rate, liveweight, wool production per head, stocking rate, gross margin and equity. Although the experiment experienced drier-than-average conditions, marked differences emerged among farmlets over time, due to the effects of treatments. During the latter half of the experimental period (2003–06), farmlet A showed numerous positive and a few negative consequences of the higher rate of pasture renovation and increased soil fertility compared with the other two farmlets. While intensive rotational grazing resulted in superior control of gastrointestinal nematodes and slightly finer wool, this system had few effects on pastures and no positive effects on sheep liveweights, wool production or stocking rate. Whereas farmlet A showed higher gross margins, it had a negative and lower short-term cash position than did farmlets B and C, due largely to the artificially high rate of pasture renovation undertaken on this farmlet during the experiment. Although farmlet B had the highest cash position at the end of the experiment, this came at a cost of the declining quality of its pastures. Modelling of the farmlet systems allowed the results to be considered over the longer timeframes needed to assess sustainability. Thus, returns on investment were compared over realistic amortisation periods and produced outcomes based on long-term climatic expectations which were compared with those that arose under the drier-than-average conditions experienced during the experimental period. The main factors responsible for lifting the productivity of farmlet A were the sowing of temperate species and increased soil fertility, which enhanced the amount of legume and increased pasture quality and potential pasture growth. The factor that affected farmlet C most was the low proportion of the farmlet grazed at any one time, with high stock density imposed during grazing, which decreased feed intake quality. The paper concludes that more profitable and sustainable outcomes are most likely to arise from grazing enterprises that are proactively managed towards optimal outcomes by maintaining sufficient desirable perennial grasses with adequate legume content, enhancing soil fertility and employing flexible rotational grazing.