2011, Nunn, Patrick, Hunter-Anderson, Rosalind

In a recent article [Journal of Pacific Archaeology, vol 1(2), 2010], Scott Fitzpatrick contends that the AD 1300 event model is unhelpful as a key to understanding environmental and societal change in the Pacific during the past 1500 years. We reject this contention on the grounds that there are ample and persuasive grounds for supposing otherwise. The AD 1300 event model proposes that climate change (especially cooling) and sea-level fall affected most of the Pacific Basin during the transition between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, and that the impacts of these changes on food resources were so profound that they led to enduring impacts on human societies in this region, particularly Pacific Islands. We aver that the AD 1300 event model remains a powerful tool for understanding last-millennium environmental and societal change in the Pacific Islands and that all the charges Fitzpatrick levels against it can be readily dismissed.

2012, Robb, Kasey F, Nunn, Patrick

Two upland sites from the Vatia Peninsula, northern Viti Levu Island, Fiji, were excavated as part of a larger project investigating the settlement history of this area. These sites represent the first intensive survey and excavation program in this part of Fiji. The sites are a cave (Matanigaga), which acted as a short-term shelter, and a ring-wall mound (Drautana), one of a number of similar sites interpreted as likely precursors to complex ridge-top fortifications. Both sites suggest that occupation in this area began in the last millennium and involved exploitation of near shore marine resources. The number of fortified hilltops on the Vatia Peninsula suggests that conflict may have been endemic in this area of Fiji during the latter part of the last millennium. Site descriptions and the analysis of ceramic, lithic, and mollusk remains are presented here.

2012, Nunn, Patrick

This paper reports preliminary findings of a study in northern Viti Levu Island (Fiji) intended to test the model of the AD 1300 Event. This holds that around AD 1250-1350, during the transition between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, there was a rapid climate-driven sea-level fall of 70-80 cm which created a food crisis for coastal dwellers throughout the tropical Pacific Islands and led to conflict and the abandonment of open coastal settlements in favour of those in more defensible locations. Two main areas were targeted - the Ba River Valley and adjoining Vatia Peninsula (plus offshore islands) - and inland/offshore sites in defensible locations, particularly in caves, ridge-top rockshelters, and isolated hilltops, were surveyed and test excavations made. Results show that while some of these sites were established during the AD 1300 Event, most were established shortly afterwards, which is exactly what the model predicts. It is concluded that prehistoric populations in Fiji (and similar island groups) were affected by the food crisis during the AD 1300 Event and did respond in ways that profoundly and enduringly altered contemporary trajectories of societal evolution. This study has great implications for the preservation of the record of prehistoric settlement in Fiji (and other tropical Pacific Island groups) because, as a consequence of this climate-forced migration from coasts to inland/upland sites, large amounts of sediment were released from island interiors and carried to their coasts where they buried earlier settlements or redistributed their material signature. Since European arrival in such places around 150 years ago, a second wave of coastal sedimentation, largely driven by plantation agriculture development had similar effects. The current rise of sea level around Pacific Island coasts is the latest in a series of (largely human) threats to the preservation of their cultural heritage.

2012, d'Aubert, AnaMaria, Nunn, Patrick

This book has been gestating for nearly twenty years and its publication now is due to the manifest upsurge in interest in improving our understanding of past climate changes in order to better understand those which challenge us during the remainder of the twenty-first century and beyond. This book does not provide a comprehensive account of the climate of the Pacific, how it evolved, how it currently functions, and how it may develop in the foreseeable future. Far better accounts of such topics are the relevant parts of the books by Rapaport (1999), Nunn (1999, 2007), and Barnett and Campbell (2010), as well as the book chapter by Lough et al. (2011). The real value of this book is in providing the most complete account yet of the history of tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and droughts in the Pacific as ascertained from written records since these began. This history is expected to be a valuable resource for those interested in both individual events in particular places as well as the changes in climate that the records represent.

2010, d'Aubert, AnaMaria, Nunn, Patrick

Extremes of climate occur globally but for the low-latitude Pacific the most common, threatening and destructive extremes come in the form of tropical cyclones and droughts. They occur regularly and both types of event have destructive and debilitating impacts on certain countries and islands within the region. Tropical cyclones and droughts periodically impact islands located in parts of the Pacific that are not usually affected by such events. The most important factor influencing the incidence of these extremes of climatic variability across the Pacific Ocean is the EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Occurring at present every 3-5 years, this large-scale ocean atmosphere interaction involves the fluctuation of pressure systems on either side of the Pacific which alter temperature, rainfall, wind and pressure distribution across the region and in tum influence the distribution of criteria required for the formation of tropical cyclones and occurrence of droughts. In addition to coping with current impacts of tropical cyclones and droughts, decision-makers of Pacific island countries now have to contend with the prospect of such events, including ENSO, becoming more frequent if global climate changes in the future as predicted. In order to understand present climatic characteristics there is a need to gain a greater understanding of climate in the more recent past.