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Title
Suitable areas of Phakopsora pachyrhizi, Spodoptera exigua, and their host plant Phaseolus vulgaris are projected to reduce and shift due to climate change
Fields of Research (FoR) 2008:
Author(s)
Publication Date
2019-01
Early Online Version
Abstract
Worldwide, crop pests (CPs) such as pathogens and insects affect agricultural production detrimentally. Species distribution models can be used for projecting current and future suitability of CPs and host crop localities. Our study overlays the distribution of two CPs (Asian soybean rust and beet armyworm) and common bean, a potential host of them, in order to determine their current and future levels of coexistence. This kind of modeling approach has rarely been performed previously in climate change studies. The soybean rust and beet armyworm model projections herein show a reduction of the worldwide area with high and medium suitability of both CPs and a movement of them away from the Equator, in 2100 more pronounced than in 2050. Most likely, heat and dry stress will be responsible for these changes. Heat and dry stress will greatly reduce and shift the future suitable cultivation area of common bean as well, in a similar manner. The most relevant findings of this study were the reduction of the suitable areas for the CPs, the reduction of the risk under future scenarios, and the similarity of trends for the CPs and host. The current results highlight the relation between and the coevolution of host and pathogens.
Publication Type
Journal Article
Source of Publication
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 135(1-2), p. 409-424
Publisher
Springer Wien
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2020
2018-01-27
Place of Publication
Austria
ISSN
1434-4483
0177-798X
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2020
Peer Reviewed
Yes
HERDC Category Description
Peer Reviewed
Yes
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