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Title
Spatio-temporal dynamic climate model for Neoleucinodes elegantalis using CLIMEX
Fields of Research (FoR) 2008:
Author(s)
da Silva, Ricardo Siqueira
da Silva, Ezio Marques
da Silva Galdino, Tarcisio Visintin
Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho
Publication Date
2017
Socio-Economic Objective (SEO) 2008
Abstract
Seasonal variations are important components in understanding the ecology of insect population of crops. Ecological studies through modeling may be a useful tool for enhancing knowledge of seasonal patterns of insects on field crops as well as seasonal patterns of favorable climatic conditions for species. Recently CLIMEX, a semi-mechanistic niche model, was upgraded and enhanced to consider spatio-temporal dynamics of climate suitability through time. In this study, attempts were made to determine monthly variations of climate suitability for 'Neoleucinodes elegantalis' (Guenée) (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in five commercial tomato crop localities through the latest version of CLIMEX. We observed that N. elegantalis displays seasonality with increased abundance in tomato crops during summer and autumn, corresponding to the first 6 months of the year in monitored areas in this study. Our model demonstrated a strong accord between the CLIMEX weekly growth index (GIw) and the density of 'N. elegantalis' for this period, thus indicating a greater confidence in our model results. Our model shows a seasonal variability of climatic suitability for 'N. elegantalis' and provides useful information for initiating methods for timely management, such as sampling strategies and control, during periods of high degree of suitability for 'N. elegantalis'. In this study, we ensure that the simulation results are valid through our verification using field data.
Publication Type
Journal Article
Source of Publication
International Journal of Biometeorology, 61(5), p. 785-795
Publisher
Springer
Place of Publication
Germany
ISSN
1432-1254
0020-7128
Peer Reviewed
Yes
HERDC Category Description
Peer Reviewed
Yes
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