Now showing 1 - 10 of 30
  • Publication
    Investigating landslide triggering rainfall and susceptibility modelling in northern Philippines
    (2018-08-14)
    Javier, Dymphna
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    The increasing global trend in reported disasters and economic damage shows that the most adversely affected is the Asia-Pacific region, especially developing countries like the Philippines. The Philippines is located in the Circum-Pacific Ring of Fire, a volcanically and seismically active zone. It lies in the Western North Pacific Basin, where tropical cyclogenesis is most active. While volcanic eruptions and earthquakes have long recurrence intervals (ranging from decades to centuries), rainfall induced landslides (RIL) and the damage they cause are dealt with almost every month of the rainy season. Locally and globally, the northern Philippines is among the most landslide prone and is among the most adversely affected.
    In order to foster community resilience, more landslide-related science-based information over space and time is essential. This study investigated the timing and impact of RIL, the amount of 24-hour and antecedent rainfall associated with RIL, and the weather conditions that enhance landslide triggering rainfall (LTR). The mountainous region of the Baguio district, where the highest 24-hour rainfall has been recorded, was chosen as the area of study. A threshold for LTR as basis for early warning was then established. The results showed that early warning for landslides may be based on one or a combination of the following: (1) 24-hour rainfall of 70 mm, (2) intensity (I) – duration (D) equation: I = 6.46 D -0.28, (3) normalized ID equation: NI = 0.002 D -0.28, (4) 24-hour rainfall that is 0.02%-28% of the mean annual precipitation, and (5) antecedent rainfall of 500 mm over a 60-day period. During a tropical cyclone event, the knowledge of accumulated rainfall can provide immediate and real-time information to signal needed action, e.g. mobilization of emergency crews, road closure, work suspension and evacuation of those at highest risk.
    The study constructed a landslide inventory from high resolution satellite imagery (HRSI), field observations and local knowledge in the southern area of the municipality of Tublay in Benguet province, some 20 kilometers north of Baguio city. Utilizing remote sensing and GIS software, a semi-automated method combined with a manual method was adopted to highlight 853 landslides, most of which were slides and debris flows.
    With available satellite imagery and access to remote sensing, GIS and statistical software, robust estimates of landslide susceptibility were generated in a process that is expeditious, straightforward, evidence-based and cost-effective. A methodology for estimating attributes of selected landslide-conditioning factors and modelling landslide susceptibility was developed. The bivariate and multivariate statistical methods of frequency ratio and binary logistic regression, respectively, were applied. A five-fold cross-validation approach in the application of the frequency ratio method demonstrated that the five factors most closely associated with RIL were NDVI < 0.38, slope is 50-60 degrees, elevation is 1800-2000 meters, aspect is south and distance to drainage is >500 m. The landslide susceptibility models that were generated using DEM, scanned maps, and HRSI factor sets separately and in combination showed consistent results. The combination of the HRSI factor set with the DEM or scanned map factor sets improved model performance significantly. The landslide susceptibility models using all factor sets provided the best results. The average success and prediction rates were 90% and 89%, respectively.
    The effect of training and validation data size was investigated in the application of the binary logistic regression. The training–validation proportions were 80%-20%, 60%-40%, 40%-60% and 20%-80%. Ten sample data sets in each proportion group were examined. Based on the coefficients obtained, the factors NDVI, LULC, aspect, lithology and slope showed strong influence on landslide occurrence. The factors plan curvature, distance to fault/lineament and distance to road were also important contributors to the models generated. Training and validation accuracy, ranging 89%-95% and 84%-95%, respectively, were best obtained using the 80%-20% data proportion. Validation accuracy diminished with decreasing training data size.
    The use of cross-validation and multiple training and validation data sets confirmed the model consistency and generated robust results. They are thus advocated in future assessments of landslide susceptibility. The landslide susceptibility maps could serve as reference for identifying no-build, high maintenance and safe zones, complementing information from the available landslide hazard maps (1:50000 and 1:10000) of national government agencies and community stakeholders. The methodology and data products could be refined and replicated in similar landslide-prone regions. It is hoped that the findings reported would contribute to ongoing efforts towards building a more landslide disaster resilient community.
  • Publication
    Markov Land Cover Change Modeling Using Pairs of Time-Series Satellite Images
    (American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 2013) ;
    Models of change processes created with the Markov chain model (MCM) can be used in the interpolation of temporal data and in short-term change projections. However, there are two major issues associated with the use of Markov models for land-cover change projections: the stationarity of change and the impact of neighboring cells on the change areas. This study addressed these two issues using an investigation of five time-series land-cover datasets generated between 1972 and 2009 for the Liverpool region of NSW, Australia. Four short term transition matrices were computed, and the results were used to predict land-cover distributions for the near future. The issue of neighborhood effects was addressed by incorporating spatial components in a Cellular Automata (CA)-based MCM, and the results were compared with those derived from a normal MCM. Given the marginal improvements in the simulation achieved with CA-MCM rather than MCM, and because of the ability of CA-MCM to incorporate spatial variants, CA-MCM was determined to be the more suitable method for predicting land-cover changes for the year 2019. The land-cover projection indicated that future land-cover changes will likely continue to affect the natural vegetation, which will in turn likely decrease through the continued conversion of natural to agricultural lands over the years.
  • Publication
    An assessment of the potential of remote sensing based irrigation scheduling for sugarcane in Australia
    (Precision Agriculture Research Group (PARG), School of Science and Technology, University of New England, 2018) ; ;

    There is currently no operational method of managing irrigation in Australia's sugar industry on the basis of systematic, direct monitoring of sugar plant physiology. Satellite remote sensing systems, having come a long way in the past 10 years now offer the potential to apply the current ground-based 'FAO' or 'crop coefficient (Kc)' approach in a way that offers a synoptic view of crop water status across fields. In particular, multi-constellation satellite remote sensing, utilising a combination of freely available Landsat and Sentinel 2 imagery, supplemented by paid-for imagery from other existing satellite systems is capable of providing the necessary spatial resolution and spectral bands and revisit frequency. The significant correlations observed between Kc and spectral vegetation indices (VIs), such as the widely used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in numerous other crops bodes well for the detection and quantification of the spatial difference in evapotranspiration (ETc) in sugar which is necessary for irrigation scheduling algorithms. Whilst the NDVI may not serve as the appropriate index for sugarcane, given the potential of the NDVI to saturate at the high leaf area index observed in fully developed cane canopies, other VIs such as the Green-NDVI (GNDVI) may provide the response required. In practise, with knowledge of an appropriate Kc-VI relationship, Kc obtained from time-series (weekly) remotely sensed data, integrated with local agrometeorological data to provide ETo, would provide estimates of ETc from which site-specific irrigated water requirements (IWR) could be estimated. The use of UAVs equipped with multispectral sensors, even active optical sensors (AOS), to 'fill the gaps' in optical data acquisition due to cloud cover is conceivable. Cross calibration of any passive imaging system, as with the multi-constellation satellite data is essential. The use of radar images (microwave remote sensing) (for example, Sentinel 1&2 C-SAR, 5m) offers all weather, day-and-night capabilities although further work is necessary to understand the link between the radar back scatter, which is responding to surface texture, and evapotranspiration (and Kc). Further R&D in ascertaining the Kc-VI relationships during crop growth is necessary, as is the testing of multi-sensor cross-calibration and the relationship between radar remote sensing and Kc. Existing irrigation advisory delivery systems in Australia such as IrriSAT should be investigated for their applicability to the sugar industry. The estimated season cost to a user for a sugarcane irrigation advisory service in Australia, based on the use of data from existing optical satellite imaging systems and utilising the Kc approach, is likely to be of the order of US$2-3/ha.

  • Publication
    Characterization, Mapping, and Monitoring of Rangelands: Methods and Approaches
    (CRC Press, 2016) ; ;
    Brown, Jesslyn F
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    Ramsey, R Douglas
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    Rigge, Matthew
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    Stam, Carson A
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    Hernandez, Alexander J
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    Hunt, E Raymond
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    Reeves, Matthew C
    While there are many definitions of rangeland, the central theme of all these is that it is land on which the dominating vegetation is mainly grasses, grass-like plants, forbs, shrubs, and isolated trees. Rangelands include shrublands, natural grasslands, woodlands, savannahs, tundra, and many desert regions. A distinguishing factor of rangelands from pasture lands is that they grow primarily native vegetation, rather than plants established by humans. Rangelands are also managed mainly through extensive practices such as managed livestock grazing and prescribed fire rather than more intensive agricultural practices and the use of fertilizers. Rangelands worldwide are known to provide a wide range of desirable goods and services, including but not limited to livestock forage, wildlife habitat, wood products, mineral resources, water, and recreation space. Large populations depend on rangelands for their livelihoods, hence effective monitoring and management is crucial for sustainable production, health, and biodiversity of these systems.
  • Publication
    GIS and Remote Sensing based land cover change detection, prediction modeling and assessment of change on biodiversity using time-series data
    (2013) ; ;
    Reid, Nick
    Various anthropogenic transformations and modifications have continuously modified and/or changed the land cover for centuries for different forms of human productions. These ultimately impacted or changed the biodiversity, nutrient and hydrological cycles as well as global environment and climate, especially in the developing world. Australia has a great variety of native vegetation ranging from rainforests, alpine habitats, wetlands, grasslands, eucalypt forests and woodlands reflecting the diversity of species, habitats and ecosystems found across the country. The destruction of habitat due to native vegetation clearing has been identified as the greatest single threat to biodiversity in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The clearing has mainly taken place in grassy woodlands areas for pasture improvement by the application of fertilizers, ploughing and the sowing of introduced grasses and clovers. This research explored the potential of a range of remote sensing and modelling techniques to assist in the investigation of suitability of land cover mapping in terms of time-period, methods, and seasonal and long term land cover change in the north-eastern parts of NSW, Australia. The overall aim of this research was to investigate the potential of remote sensing, GIS and modelling techniques in detailed investigations of seasonal and nearly four decadal land cover change analysis and assessment of long term pattern of land cover change for future change predictions. The research also aimed at assessing the impact of land cover change on terrestrial habitat configurations.
  • Publication
    Urban Built-up Area Extraction and Change Detection of Adama Municipal Area using Time-Series Landsat Images
    (Cloud Journals, 2016-08-16) ; ;
    Ayele, Eskindir
    Urban built-up area information is required in various applications of land use planning and management. However, urban built-up area extraction from moderate spatial resolution Landsat time-series data is challenging because of significant intra-urban heterogeneity and spectral confusion between other landcover types. This paper proposes a technique to extract urban built-up area from time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) imageries and determines urban area changes between 1984 to 2015 of Adama Municipal Area of Ethiopia. The study selected three indices, the Enhanced Built-Up and Bareness Index (EBBI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), to represent three major urban land-use classes: built-up and barren/bare land, open waterbody, and vegetation, respectively. The built-up area was extracted by taking the difference between EBBI, SAVI and MNDWI to remove the vegetation and water noises, and the resulted index image was spectrally segmented to separate built-up area from the non-urban built-up lands. The derived index was used to map built-up area for 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2015 periods. The expansion of the built-up area has been revealed as a major change in the area when city area expanded substantially by 293% between 1984 to 2015 periods. The advantage of the method was to use almost the entire spectral range of Landsat imageries which cause less spectral confusion between land cover classes and hence resulted in higher accuracies compared to other indices. The method was effective and simple to implement, and can be used for built-up extraction in other areas.
  • Publication
    Rank-Based Methods for Selection of Landscape Metrics for Land Cover Pattern Change Detection
    Often landscape metrics are not thoroughly evaluated with respect to remote sensing data characteristics, such as their behavior in relation to variation in spatial and temporal resolution, number of land cover classes or dominant land cover categories. In such circumstances, it may be difficult to ascertain whether a change in a metric is due to landscape pattern change or due to the inherent variability in multi-temporal data. This study builds on this important consideration and proposes a rank-based metric selection process through computation of four difference-based indices (β, γ, ε, and θ) using a Max-Min/Max normalization approach. Land cover classification was carried out for two contrasting provinces, the Liverpool Range (LR) and Liverpool Plains (LP), of the Brigalow Belt South Bioregion (BBSB) of NSW, Australia. Landsat images, Multi Spectral Scanner (MSS) of 1972-1973 and TM of 1987-1988, 1993-1994, 1999-2000 and 2009-2010 were classified using object-based image analysis methods. A total of 30 landscape metrics were computed and their sensitivities towards variation in spatial and temporal resolutions, number of land cover classes and dominant land cover categories were evaluated by computing a score based on Max-Min/Max normalization. The landscape metrics selected on the basis of the proposed methods (Diversity index (MSIDI), Area weighted mean patch fractal dimension (SHAPE_AM), Mean core area (CORE_MN), Total edge (TE), No. of patches (NP), Contagion index (CONTAG), Mean nearest neighbor index (ENN_MN) and Mean patch fractal dimension (FRAC_MN)) were successful and effective in identifying changes over five different change periods. Major changes in land cover pattern after 1993 were observed, and though the trends were similar in both cases, the LP region became more fragmented than the LR. The proposed method was straightforward to apply, and can deal with multiple metrics when selection of an appropriate set can become difficult.
  • Publication
    Climate Change and its Impacts on Agriculture in Bhutan
    (University of New England, 2022-02-03)
    Chhogyel, Ngawang
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    ; ;
    Bajgai, Yadunath

    Climate change has been unequivocally known to be real, and its impacts are recognized as one of the most pressing global issues in the current decade. Evidences from a variety of different studies show that the impacts of climate change have become a major threat to agriculture and the food security in both the developed and developing countries across the world. With unabated increase in the anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse gas emission that is known to interfere with `the regional and global circulation systems, global warming, and climate change in the twenty first century and beyond, would continue to be the most important agenda of debate and scientific discourses. Moreover, the negative impacts of climate change have been observed to be more pronounced in the high latitude areas, such as the mountainous countries in the Himalayas and elsewhere. Studies have also strongly postulated that the adverse impacts of climate change are most likely to be more severe in the developing countries in south Asia, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, due to their low adoption of farming technologies and lack of capacity to respond.

    As many developing countries in the region report the negative impacts of climate change, Bhutan—an agrarian country located in the Eastern Himalayas, is no exception. The country has experienced increasing incidences of risks and disasters associated with climatic variabilities in the recent years. There have been pervasive issues of changing weather patterns that make farming a highly risky and vulnerable occupation. Apart from this, there are other pre-disposing factors that make Bhutan an even more sensitive and vulnerable to the climate variabilities. The highly rugged mountainous topography is one of the most important factors that make farming very challenging, as farmlands are concentrated in the river valleys with scattered land parcels in the mountain slopes. Thus the farms are highly prone to natural disasters that are triggered by weather and climatic events. The dramatic rise in elevation even over a small distance is another factor, which influence the orographic effects of mass air-flow systems, contributing to sudden changes in weather, thus negatively impacting crops and farms. Moreover, the Himalayan Mountains are considered to be geologically fragile, with inherently infertile soils for farming. This further makes farming prone to the destructive natural events, including those of weather phenomena. All of these, contribute to the challenging and subsistence nature of farming in the Bhutanese agricultural system. Therefore, this research was undertaken to study climate change and its impacts on various aspects of agriculture across different agro-ecological zones in Bhutan. The study used a combination of farmers’ perception analysis, geo-spatial techniques and modelling approaches to fill the much-needed knowledge gap on the issues of climate change faced by the Bhutanese farmers, and provides insights into the past, present and future climate change impact scenarios. Much of the climate and impact reports on Bhutan were based on hearsay, and scientific studies are few and far between.

    As part of this research, a thorough review of agricultural production management system and pertinent issues of climate change impacts in Bhutan was undertaken. It was found that agriculture in Bhutan and the study region have been largely affected by the rising temperature, droughts and precipitation changes, which in turn have led to many other issues, ranging from water availability, crop and infrastructure damage to land degradation. Moving further, assessment of land cover changes in Punatsang Chhu Basin of Bhutan indicated large scale changes, especially in the high elevation areas. The findings from this study show that there is an increased rate of glacier retreat, with repercussions of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) and erosive activities of rivers and streams that directly and indirectly affect farming downstream in the river valleys. This indicates that mountain agriculture is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and is at high risks of food insecurity. Likewise, the results from the analysis of farmers’ perceptions across the various agro-ecological zones in Bhutan indicated that farming has become more and more challenging. The extreme weather events, such as untimely rains, droughts and windstorms have become frequent occurrences, thus inflicting between 1-19% crop damages. The monsoon rains were assessed to be highly unpredictable, and untimely, which were perceived to have impacted the decisions of farmers, due to drying up of water sources, crop losses, land fallowing and cropping pattern changes. Farmers have also perceived issues of the emergence of diseases and pests, which together with aggressive incursion of invasive species (Parthenium hysterophorus, for example) would herald uncertainties and rising pressure on Bhutan’s limited arable land. Further, based on the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), MaxEnt modelling of rice distribution indicated large changes in crop suitability shift. Such a crop suitability change, especially from high to low suitability in the major rice growing areas, indicates decline in crop area and yield under the impact of climate change in the near future. Therefore, for improving the resilience and sustainability of the Bhutanese farms, a comprehensive climate change adaptation plan, backed up by in-depth research and policy instrument must be put in place.

  • Publication
    Independent two-step thresholding of binary images in inter-annual land cover change/no-change identification
    (Elsevier BV, 2013) ;
    Binary images from one or more spectral bands have been used in many studies for land-cover change/ no-change identification in diverse climatic conditions. Determination of appropriate threshold levels for change/no-change identification is a critical factor that influences change detection result accuracy. The most used method to determine the threshold values is based on the standard deviation (SD) from the mean, assuming the amount of change (due to increase or decrease in brightness values) to be symmetrically distributed on a standard normal curve, which is not always true. Considering the asymmetrical nature of distribution histogram for the two sides, this study proposes a relatively simple and easy 'Independent Two-Step' thresholding approach for optimal threshold value determination for spectrally increased and decreased part using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) difference image. Six NDVI differencing images from 2007 to 2009 of different seasons were tested for inter-annual or seasonal land cover change/no-change identification. The relative performances of the proposed and two other methods towards the sensitivity of distributions were tested and an improvement of ~ 3% in overall accuracy and of ~0.04 in Kappa was attained with the Proposed Method. This study demonstrated the importance of consideration of normality of data distributions in land-cover change/no-change analysis.
  • Publication
    Assessing the impacts of climate change on climate/land suitability for tea crop [Camellia sinensis (L) O. Kuntze] and the quality of young tea leaves in Sri Lanka
    (University of New England, 2023-02-14)
    Jayasinghe, Sadeeka Layomi
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    ;

    The impacts of climate change on tea production systems may be very variable, at both the national and global levels. In particular, Sri Lanka is considered vulnerable to climate fluctuations due to a variety of geographic, socioeconomic, and political factors. The predicted effects of climate change could have serious and irreversible consequences for tea production, quality, and habitats. Therefore, the consequences of climate change on Sri Lanka's tea industry should be extensively researched to determine its impact on production and quality, which in turn related to export revenues and employment for rural populations. However, information is exiguous on how climate change could affect climate/land suitability and tea quality under rainfed conditions in Sri Lanka. To narrow this gap, this study aimed at evaluating the effects of climate change on climate/land suitability for tea and its quality using a case study of Sri Lanka, a well-known high-quality black tea producer, as a classic example of a susceptible region. The study used species distribution techniques, geographic information system (GIS), remote sensing (RS)–based applications, and chemical analysis of tea leaves. The systematic review suggested that the impacts of the current and future climate on tea production systems outweigh the beneficial impacts, having multidimensional and multifaceted consequences. Tea yield increases when CO2 levels rise, but this positive effect could be hindered by rising temperatures. Further, tea yield would be negatively impacted by drought, uneven rainfall, and extreme weather events. For tea quality attributes, climate change can serve as both a boon and a bane, leaving questions and giving research priority to quantifying the thresholds of biochemicals to define tea quality, according to customer satisfaction. Climate change affects tea habitats by causing losses, gains, and shifts in climate suitability. Further review suggested the scarcity of appropriate method to model impacts of future climate changes on tea quality and for determining climate suitability for tea. It also highlighted the importance of implementation of adaptive and mitigation measures in tea production to alleviate the undesirable impacts of climate change. At regional scale climate modelling for Sri Lanka's tea sector, indicated that precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are the three most important bioclimatic variables of tea habitat distribution in Sri Lanka. Land suitability classes for tea cultivation comprised of low suitability (42.1%), unsuitable (28.5%), moderate (12.4%), highly suitable (13.9%), and very highly suitable (2.5%). There is a chance of decrease in optimal and medium suitability areas in low-elevation regions in the future, with overall decline assessed to be between 8-17% for all suitability areas. This indicating that climate change will have a negative effect on the habitat suitability of tea in Sri Lanka by 2050 and 2070. Further, the refinement in land suitability classification through inclusion of other climatic and environmental variables (solar radiation, temperature, rainfall, topographic and soil) in climate model made two suggestions namely (1) there is a noticeable difference between tea- and non-tea-growing areas in terms of all above factors" (2) under future climate change scenario, tea-growing regions in Sri Lanka could expand to a range of locales, if some key variables are carefully managed.

    For tea quality assessment, model showed a significant interaction effect of weather conditions, cultivar, and geographical location over the concentrations of major tea quality biochemicals (total polyphenol content (TPC), free sugar, protein, and theanine) in tea leaves. The bioclimatic variables present seasonality (monthly range in temperature and precipitation), monthly trends (mean monthly temperature, monthly total precipitation), and extreme environmental variables (temperature of the coldest and warmest month, and precipitation of the wettest and driest months). They particularly caused changes in the four tested biochemicals of tea. The thresholds of all tested biochemicals are likely to increase with future climate change as temperatures and rainfall intensities are likely to increase. The distribution class with "very high" concentrations of TPC and theanine is expected to increase by 10% and 14%, respectively, in the future, while protein and free sugar classes are expected to decrease by 14% and 12%, respectively. For tea quality assessment, model showed a significant interaction effect of weather conditions, cultivar, and geographical location over the concentrations of major tea quality biochemicals (total polyphenol content (TPC), free sugar, protein, and theanine) in tea leaves. The bioclimatic variables present seasonality (monthly range in temperature and precipitation), monthly trends (mean monthly temperature, monthly total precipitation), and extreme environmental variables (temperature of the coldest and warmest month, and precipitation of the wettest and driest months). They particularly caused changes in the four tested biochemicals of tea. The thresholds of all tested biochemicals are likely to increase with future climate change as temperatures and rainfall intensities are likely to increase. The distribution class with "very high" concentrations of TPC and theanine is expected to increase by 10% and 14%, respectively, in the future, while protein and free sugar classes are expected to decrease by 14% and 12%, respectively.